Trump’s Deregulation Bets, AI Shakeups, and Digital Assets: 2025 in Focus

By Koen Ripping, CEO, Affor Analytics

It is that time of the year again when your mailbox gets filled with outlooks for 2025 from all sides. And it’s no surprise that, again, the year’s outlook comes with a high degree of uncertainty. I’ll refrain from actually giving targets this time, as you can read them from any Wall Street’s bank outlook. And mostly, because it’s hard to get them right. In the past eight years, actual market returns were outside the range of all forecasts compiled seven times, of which the market outperformed five times (source: Bloomberg).

Still, a good case can be made for uncertainty this year. If Trump actually holds up to some of his statements, we could see deregulation on multiple aspects, lower corporate taxes, and of course, tariffs. This will obviously not only impact the US, but could affect economies globally through tit-for-tat tariffs or, for longer term effects, geopolitical actions. Our expectation is that deregulation will happen, and this will feed into a more accommodative and friendly environment for small-to-midsize companies.

This does, however, not mean an end to the Magnificent Seven’s dominance for the coming year. The driver of the outperformance has been a superior earnings growth compared to the rest, which was 33% for Mag7 in 2024 compared to 3% for the rest resulting in an outperformance of around 24% (depending on when you read this). Consensus earnings growth for next year for Mag7 and the rest are respectively 18% versus 12%, resulting in an expected outperformance of 8% for the megacaps from our equity team.

Lower corporate tax could be a potential bull case for the US market, but given the wider pro-growth strategy from the new Trump administration, we don’t see much room for this. Then tariffs are the most significant risk on the otherwise good growth outlook, but we are not expecting an outright tariff war. The tactic will probably be precisely targeted tariffs, where we see an increase in China tariffs and possibly auto tariffs on the EU and Mexico, so retaliatory tariffs will also be the answer. This would add a one-time premium on price levels, as we’ve seen in the first Trump administration, but doesn’t feed through to sustained inflation.

In general, both in the US and EU, continued easing is expected, with falling policy rates supporting economic growth in both areas. This, together with policymakers poised on enhancing growth, and with companies having, like we say in Dutch, cash that is splashing against the baseboards (flush with cash), builds towards a bull case for 2025. Amongst other trends, this will also flow towards three trends I am most familiar with: Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and M&A.

Digital assets – A serious asset in 2025

2024 has been a good year for digital assets. Especially for Bitcoin, where the new BTC spot ETF cleared the way for institutional investors and others that were bound from trading on less conventional exchanges. This inflow of capital made the BTC ETFs surpass the Gold ETFs in AUM within a year, which has been around for over a decade.

Another important factor for digital asset performance is Trump’s election. Since its arrival,  the risky asset class has been met with suspicion and disbelief, mainly because of regulatory unclarity and negative publicity. With Trump pledging support to the industry and even mentioning a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the US, markets have been rallying.

A strategic reserve would drastically improve the legitimacy of the asset class as a whole. Though this is still far-fetched, our view is that the new US government will definitely be accommodative in this area. They seem to have gathered a team of experts around him that looks suited to walk the thin line of implementing new regulations while not restricting market participants and early adopting businesses.

After a very dominant Bitcoin in 2024, our digital assets team expects this dominance to decline, while still growing in value, leaving room for alternative tokens to outperform. The first signs of this shift are visible in the pick-up in Ethereum spot prices. This shift correlates with previous cycles of the market, where Bitcoin initially leads, followed by other assets higher on the risk curve. We identified two trends to gain more traction in 2025.

The first trend is tokenization as part of the Real-World Assets sector. This is one of the areas we are also exploring for our funds, like institutions such as BlackRock and JP Morgan already explored for traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, or real estate. By tokenizing these assets on a blockchain, they become more liquid and can be fractalized. The assets become tradable 24/7, and the transaction settlement is fast, cheap, and transparent, allowing for more financial opportunities.

The other one is Artificial Intelligence. Many of the current platforms, such as ChatGPT or Google Gemini are centralized, coming with risks such as privacy issues, potential biases, and single points of failure. Decentralized solutions could be a solution for those who are unwilling to be exposed to those kinds of risks.

If the US takes the lead in accommodative regulation, other nations will follow. Because of this, 2025 could be the year general adoption is accelerated, leaving the digital asset market positioned to do very well.

Artificial Intelligence – Show me the customers

It almost feels like a must mentioning AI as a 2025 trend. Obviously, it has been one of the most traded and talked about trends in past years, but it feels like there is a shift coming. Spending on AI will likely increase, as overall corporate capital investment has been at an annual 2.5%, whereas the average peak capex in the last three trends (energy, housing, and dot-com) was around 8%. So there seems to be enough room there, but valuations in AI are even higher both in public and private markets. Investors will start to look more for ROI and proof-of-concept through a growing customer base.

This will feed into the trend that the focus of investment within the AI sector will change. Where in the past years we’ve seen companies in the infrastructure part of the ecosystem do very well. Our expectation is that emphasis in 2025 will shift more towards the mid- and downstream of AI, focussing on the products and services, and especially to companies where revenues actually get enhanced by the use of AI. That being said, also energy supply for these solutions will become a more important topic.

As a sub-trend, we expect identity to be a hot topic going forward. AI-generated news, images, text, and speech are spreading more and more around the internet. The need for an actual confirmation of real human output (or conversation) will increase. Ironically, this can only be solved by AI.

We have seen adaptation of multiple tools like ChatGPT, but more in a ‘getting-to-know-the-product’ kind of way. More structured solutions built on these LLMs are getting traction now that models are improving at such a fast pace, with an accuracy increase from 10% to 90% from 2021 to 2024 for competition-level math questions (source: Jensen, G., Narayan, A., Greene, A., & Simon, L. (2024). Is an AI Bubble Ahead of Us or Behind Us? Bridgewater.). Beneficiaries will be sectors where the share of tasks that can be handled by AI can reduce labor costs and increase revenue by incorporating this into their business.

All of this does not mean replacing employees, as you have probably read before, but increasing the share of value-added hours. For example, we now utilise AI-ensembles to provide our fundamental team with trading signals. This allows us to react faster to investment opportunities, and also signal more opportunities that are overlooked by humans in the first place.

In general, capital will continue to flow towards AI as a sector, but with a more stricter view on market adoption and value-addition. Ultimately adoption and ability to incorporate these tools efficiently will lead to productivity gains, but in my opinion, this will be a much longer-term trend and won’t crystallize in 2025.

M&A – Consolidation on all fronts

Last but not least, falling interest rates, cash-rich companies, and a less restrictive regulatory environment from a new Trump administration is a fertile ground for a lot more M&A activity, which has already seen a pick-up in 2024. Beneficiaries would be banks that are big in M&A, private equity and credit firms, and private business owners.

In my experience, consolidation, if rightly managed, not only leads to a better market position but can also help companies let their teams focus on their strong suits. To give a personal example, our core strength is creating AI solutions which we apply in fund management. Now, with our partnership with Dutchyard, we can outsource fund management and fundraising, leaving more time to focus on our expertise.

With the upcoming US administration giving a boost to entrepreneur confidence through a less restrictive environment, this is a trend that we expect to continue in 2025.

In conclusion, 2025 shapes up to be generally a decent year for equities globally, but with a bit more unknowns. On the digital assets front, the outlook is good, as Trump might legitimize the asset class as a whole. While AI spending will increase, the focus will shift to actual use cases as users are past the discovery phase.

2025 will belong to those with the muscle to flex less traditional assets and the foresight to leverage innovation, driving value in an evolving financial landscape.