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Bitcoin fever is running high, again – Saxo Bank MENA Market Report

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By Charu Chanana, Head of Forex Strategy, Saxo Bank

Bitcoin surged to a record peak yesterday, fueled by rising demand since the introduction of spot ETFs in January and anticipation surrounding the April halving event, which is expected to limit supply. Moreover, the boost in liquidity and the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts are propelling risk assets. However, prudent risk management is warranted, given the stretched positioning and significant volatility.

The price of bitcoin (XBTUSD) soared to all-time highs of over $69,000 on Tuesday before turning lower as some traders locked in profits. Gains have reached over 50% year-to-date, with much of the surge occurring recently as trading volume surged for US-listed Bitcoin funds.

Ethereum (XETUSD) outperformed Bitcoin even as the SEC recently pushed back against Ethereum ETFs proposed by BlackRock and Fidelity. Markets are awaiting the SEC’s decision on the VanEck Ethereum ETF, which has its final decision deadline on May 23rd. Any approval, however, will likely come with the rest of the ETF filings as well, just like the spot Bitcoin ETFs, to prevent a first-mover advantage.

What is driving the bitcoin rally?

Record inflows in the recently launched Bitcoin ETFs

The first spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched in January this year, and investors are rushing to invest in them. Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted everyday investors who want to buy digital assets through their brokerage accounts without going to a crypto exchange or to funds that track Bitcoin’s price through futures contracts.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust eclipsed $10 billion in assets Thursday, the fastest a new ETF has ever reached that milestone. Fidelity’s fund, with more than $6 billion in assets, is already the asset manager’s third-largest ETF and has accounted for most of its net ETF inflows this year.

Anticipation ahead of the halving event

The halving, also known as the “halvening,” is a scheduled event in Bitcoin’s protocol that occurs approximately every four years. During this event, Bitcoin miners’ reward for validating transactions and securing the network is halved. This reduction in the reward decreases the rate at which new bitcoins are created, effectively reducing the available supply.

The halving aims to control inflation and ensure that the total supply of bitcoins remains capped at 21 million, as specified in Bitcoin’s code. This scarcity is one of the key factors driving Bitcoin’s value.

The next bitcoin halving is expected to occur in April 2024, when the number of blocks hits 740,000. It will see the block reward fall from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins. The general consensus is that Bitcoin halving events are positive for the price of Bitcoin, and historically, they have been.

Flush liquidity and general risk-on environment

The Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility, or RRP—where eligible counterparties can park cash to earn a fixed rate—has been dwindling. This means that money market funds that parked excess cash at the RRP before have been withdrawing it, particularly to buy T-bills, adding to market liquidity. As hinted by Fed member Chris Waller, the Fed may be at a point to start discussing the tapering of QT.

Even as policy rates may remain higher for longer, the market is flush with liquidity. This could be partly fuelling the recent all-time highs across risk assets, including NASDAQ. Bitcoin remains sensitive to liquidity shifts, given it is a high-volatility tech proxy.

FOMO buying

For those undecided about entering the crypto sphere, few things induce more FOMO (fear of missing out) than witnessing Bitcoin’s ascent from the sidelines. Knowing others are making money while they’re not can push people to take big risks. Indeed, FOMO serves as a potent catalyst for impulsive buying decisions.

The fragmentation game

Bitcoin provides an alternative asset choice for those looking to diversify away from government-controlled assets. This has been a factor supporting gold, as many central banks have bought gold over the last few years to diversify their USD reserves. Bitcoin could face a similar demand if it is increasingly accepted as the ‘digital gold’ of the 21st century. However, there are inherent risks to consider. Presently, Bitcoin’s volatility makes it an unreliable store of value.

Exit from the crypto winter

The market seems to be healing from the aftermath of the crypto winter, marked by the collapse of firms like TerraLuna, Genesis, BlockFi, and FTX, which tarnished cryptocurrencies‘ reputation. A recent period of calm suggests stability, while some see it as a necessary cleanup of the crypto ecosystem.

Risk management is warranted

Bitcoin price action follows a high-beta cycle. When it rises, it rises fast, but when it falls, it also falls much quicker than other risk assets because of a high level of leveraged play in the crypto market. The recent run higher could have been a result of a short-squeeze, as strong ETF flows lead to higher prices and force some shorts to cover. Likewise, leveraged traders are forced to liquidate when the price declines, exacerbating the selloff. Thus, volatility is a key risk.

Also worth noting that speculative positioning is also long, which makes it potentially vulnerable to a reversal if ETF demand starts to moderate. Positioning in altcoins, such as Ether, is relatively more modest and long.

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ADIB’s Retail Banking Chief Discusses Market Leadership and Product Innovation Strategy

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Exclusive Interview with Amit Malhotra, Group Head of Retail Banking, ADIB

Amit Malhotra ADIB
Amit Malhotra, Group Head of Retail Banking, ADIB
  1. You launched the remittance service “Remit!” this month in collaboration with Visa. Why might this service contribute to the expansion of your business? How have customers responded to it? And is it limited to the UAE market, which is seeing a growing influx of migrant labour?

The launch of “Remit!” with Visa represents an important milestone for ADIB, expanding our product portfolio and meeting the evolving needs of customers who increasingly require secure, rapid, and cost-effective remittance solutions. It also reflects the bank’s unwavering commitment to innovation, customer-centricity, and financial inclusion.

The UAE, with its large and growing expat population, provides a strong foundation for such services, and remittances remain a critical financial lifeline for many residents. ADIB’s new service leverages the power of Visa’s global network to deliver fast, reliable, and transparent cross-border transfers. This offering not only reinforces ADIB’s position as a leader in digital banking solutions but also addresses the evolving needs of a diverse customer base in one of the world’s largest remittance markets. With a large and ever-growing expatriate population, the demand for secure, rapid, and cost-effective remittance solutions is essential and

the launch of “Remit!” with Visa Direct is a strategic response to the UAE’s unique market dynamics. Visa Direct, known for its real-time payment capabilities, empowers ADIB customers to send funds internationally with unprecedented ease and speed. Transfers that once took days can now be completed within hours—This “remittance at your fingertips” approach transforms the user experience, removing traditional barriers and complexities that have long characterized cross-border payments.

Early feedback has been highly encouraging. Customers value the seamless integration with Visa’s global network, which allows transfers to be completed within hours rather than days. They also appreciate the user-friendly app interface, responsive customer support, and the added confidence of Visa’s robust security protocols. These features have proven particularly reassuring for first-time remittance users.

At present, “Remit!” is tailored for the UAE market. However, given the scale of Visa’s infrastructure, the platform is designed with future scalability in mind, creating potential for expansion into other markets with similar demand.

  1. What is the volume of investments the bank has injected into new products since the beginning of the year, and what are your expectations for the fourth quarter?

ADIB has consistently invested in new products throughout the year as part of its broader commitment to innovation and growth solidifying its reputation as a market leader in Islamic banking. While specific figures are not disclosed, our strategy prioritizes supporting emerging opportunities and diversifying our product offerings. These include fractional sukuk This innovative product allows a wider range of customers to participate in sukuk investments by lowering the minimum investment threshold, making Islamic finance more accessible and flexible.

Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect momentum to remain strong, with a focus on solutions that address evolving customer needs and position ADIB for sustained long-term growth. The Exceed Rewards Program provides customers with enhanced opportunities to earn and redeem points across a variety of partners and platforms. This program is tailored to deepen customer engagement and loyalty while offering tangible value. Enhanced ATM and CDM Machines: Investment in upgraded ATM and Cash Deposit Machines (CDMs) has modernized branch and self-service banking. These machines now offer improved reliability, increased security, and expanded functionality, catering to evolving customer expectations for convenience and efficiency. In response to the growing demand for digital banking, ADIB has rolled out more than 30 new digital services. These encompass everything from account management and mobile payments to advanced analytics and customer support, ensuring that clients have access to seamless, secure, and personalized banking experiences.

 Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect momentum to remain strong, with a focus on solutions that address evolving customer needs and position ADIB for sustained long-term growth.

  1. Do you intend to launch a new product before the end of the current year?

Innovation remains a central focus for ADIB, and this year has already seen the successful launch of market-first offerings, including the pioneering Smart Sukuk platform. Our strong pipeline of new initiatives reflects this momentum.

While details cannot be shared at this stage, we are actively developing a range of products designed to set new benchmarks in Islamic finance and digital banking. As the year progresses, we expect to announce further launches that demonstrate our commitment to delivering value-driven, Sharia-compliant solutions.

  1. How many fractional sukuks are currently available on the bank’s platform launched this year, and what is their total size?

ADIB’s Smart Sukuk platform currently offers around 70 sukuk listings, representing a diverse and high-quality suite of Sharia-compliant fixed-income securities. These listings provide retail investors with access to opportunities that were previously reserved for institutional players.

The platform’s fractional model has lowered the minimum investment threshold from USD 200,000 to just USD 1,000, significantly broadening access and participation. Each sukuk varies by issuer, maturity, yield, and asset structure, enabling investors to build well-diversified portfolios in line with their financial objectives.

  1. What are your financial performance expectations for the bank this year, in terms of growth of profit and returns?

Building on strong momentum in the first half of the year, we expect continued momentum. This performance will be underpinned by solid demand in customer finance, particularly in retail, where ADIB now holds the leading market share in personal and home finance.

Our strategy also emphasizes diversification, with a clear focus on growing non-funded income and fee-based revenues to ensure greater stability and sustainability. With our strong market position and resilient operating model, we are confident in our ability to deliver superior returns and long-term value for all stakeholders.

  1. Does the bank have any new expansion plans in existing markets or plans to enter new markets next year?

Our near-term focus is on deepening our presence in core markets where ADIB already enjoys a strong footprint, such as the UAE and Egypt. The priority is to strengthen relationships with existing customers by enhancing cross-sell opportunities, upgrading digital platforms, and expanding advisory and support services.

By tailoring solutions and offering integrated product bundles, we aim to deliver more value and build lasting relationships. This approach ensures that growth is sustainable, while leveraging ADIB’s strong brand reputation in markets where we already have scale and expertise.

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Rent Instalments Dubai: How Slices Reshape Tenant Loyalty

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Omar Abu Innab

By Omar Abu Innab, CEO & Co-founder

In Dubai, the handover of a rent cheque often feels like a financial earthquake. For many tenants, it is the single largest outgoing of the year — one that empties savings accounts, spikes anxiety, and disrupts liquidity overnight. Traditional rent structures, whether annual lump sums or quarterly payments, may suit landlords, but they rarely reflect the way people actually earn and spend money. Salaries arrive monthly, bills are spread weekly, and life’s surprises never wait for cheque dates.

This mismatch does more than strain finances. It creates uncertainty and detachment. Tenants under pressure from upfront costs are less likely to renew, more likely to negotiate aggressively, and often hesitant to see their rental as a long-term home.

The Slice Effect: A Shift in Behaviour

Break the rent into twelve manageable instalments, however, and the entire psychology changes. Rent instalments in Dubai don’t just ease cash flow; they reframe how tenants view their homes. Instead of confronting a yearly burden, rent becomes a predictable routine woven into monthly salary cycles, much like utilities or car payments.

This subtle shift encourages tenants to stay longer. Not because they are tied down, but because they no longer face the stress of large financial shocks. Rent is reframed from a hurdle into a lifestyle expense, creating loyalty that landlords value. Lower turnover means fewer vacant periods, steadier income, and stronger landlord-tenant relationships.

Rent Now, Pay Later: A Quiet Revolution

Dubai’s rental market, once dominated by cheque culture, is transforming. Platforms like Keyper have introduced Rent Now, Pay Later (RNPL), enabling tenants to pay monthly while landlords continue receiving rent on their preferred schedule — even upfront.

The dual benefits are striking. Tenants enjoy breathing space and improved cash flow. Landlords retain financial security and stability. Automation bridges the gap, ensuring seamless transactions. Beyond convenience, RNPL creates ripple effects: tenants channel savings into investments or lifestyle upgrades, landlords attract stronger demand, and properties offering RNPL gain a competitive edge in the market.

Trust Through Proptech

Scepticism around flexible payments is natural. Landlords often worry about defaults or unreliable tenants. Proptech innovation addresses this head-on. By embedding tenant screening, open banking, and digital KYC processes, platforms ensure that only qualified tenants gain access to instalment options.

This screening provides landlords with confidence while giving tenants a frictionless, subscription-style experience. The outcome is a healthier rental ecosystem where both sides trust the process. Properties listed with RNPL attract interest faster, lease quicker, and enjoy higher renewal rates.

More Than Money: Cultural Change in Renting

Flexible rent payments are not only about financial management — they represent a cultural shift. Tenants paying monthly are more likely to personalise their homes, join neighbourhood communities, and think long-term. They do not just occupy apartments; they build lives in them.

In a global city like Dubai, where talent continually arrives from abroad, this cultural stickiness is invaluable. By reducing churn and fostering belonging, RNPL aligns Dubai with international leasing standards. For professionals moving from cities like London or New York, monthly rent instalments feel familiar, making Dubai more competitive as a destination.

Why Instalments Mean Belonging

The shift from lump sums to instalments does more than spread payments. It changes perceptions. Tenants breathe easier when the mountain of rent is broken into smaller hills. They stay longer, invest emotionally in their homes, and engage with their communities. For landlords, this means steadier returns. For the city, it enhances financial well-being and strengthens community ties.

Cheque culture once defined Dubai’s property landscape. Today, rent instalments in Dubai — powered by RNPL — are writing a new narrative. Flexible payments bring stability, foster loyalty, and encourage tenants not just to rent, but to settle in.

Read our previous post on Ryan Acquires Dhruva Stake Expanding Middle East Presence

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US based Ryan and Dhruva Form Strategic Joint Venture to Expand Global Tax Services Footprint

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Ryan and Dhruva Form Strategic Joint Venture

Dhruva, a premier tax advisory firm with deep expertise across the Middle East, India, and Asia, today announced a strategic investment by Ryan, a leading global tax services and software provider. This partnership marks a significant step in Ryan’s expansion into the Middle East, India, and Asia, enhancing its ability to serve clients in high-growth markets while reinforcing its global capabilities.

As part of the transaction, US based Ryan will acquire a majority stake in Dhruva, creating a joint venture in India, Ryan’s senior leadership will join the Board of Dhruva, Partners of Dhruva will acquire equity in Ryan, ensuring long-term alignment, and Dinesh Kanabar, CEO of Dhruva Advisors, will take on the role of Vice Chairman at Ryan.­

Founded in 2014 by Dinesh Kanabar, Dhruva has rapidly grown into one of the most respected tax advisory firms in India and the UAE. With 38 partners and senior leaders, supported by over 500 professionals across 11 offices in the Middle East, India, and Singapore, Dhruva advises leading businesses across industries such as aerospace, automotive, chemicals, finance, healthcare, technology, and real estate.

“Joining Ryan is a major milestone in Dhruva’s global growth journey as this partnership extends our global reach,” said Dinesh Kanabar, Chairman and CEO of Dhruva. “My leadership team and I chose to partner with Ryan because we believe it provides the strongest platform for our clients and team members for continued success. I am encouraged by the alignment of our respective leadership teams to meet the growing needs of our multinational clients and look forward to driving that growth in my new role as Vice Chairman at Ryan.”

“This partnership with Ryan is a defining moment for Dhruva. For the Middle East, this partnership is more than just scale – it’s about combining global expertise and regional insights. Together we are not only expanding scale but also shaping the future of tax advisory in the Middle East,” said Nimish Goel, Partner and Head of Middle East at Dhruva.

“We are excited to enter into this strategic partnership with Dhruva, which gives us a client-facing presence in the Middle East for the first time. The combination of our two firms will provide clients with unrivalled service in one of the fastest-growing markets for tax advisory services in the world,” said Tom Shave, President, Europe & Asia Pacific, Ryan.

Dhruva’s services span corporate tax and regulatory advisory, M&A tax structuring, indirect tax, transfer pricing, and cross-border trade compliance.

This move builds upon Ryan’s longstanding presence in India, where the firm has operated for over two decades with a primary office in Hyderabad, while marking its first client-facing entry into the Middle East. Together, Ryan and Dhruva will now expand across the Middle East and Asia with offices in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, and Singapore.

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