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Bitcoin fever is running high, again – Saxo Bank MENA Market Report

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By Charu Chanana, Head of Forex Strategy, Saxo Bank

Bitcoin surged to a record peak yesterday, fueled by rising demand since the introduction of spot ETFs in January and anticipation surrounding the April halving event, which is expected to limit supply. Moreover, the boost in liquidity and the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts are propelling risk assets. However, prudent risk management is warranted, given the stretched positioning and significant volatility.

The price of bitcoin (XBTUSD) soared to all-time highs of over $69,000 on Tuesday before turning lower as some traders locked in profits. Gains have reached over 50% year-to-date, with much of the surge occurring recently as trading volume surged for US-listed Bitcoin funds.

Ethereum (XETUSD) outperformed Bitcoin even as the SEC recently pushed back against Ethereum ETFs proposed by BlackRock and Fidelity. Markets are awaiting the SEC’s decision on the VanEck Ethereum ETF, which has its final decision deadline on May 23rd. Any approval, however, will likely come with the rest of the ETF filings as well, just like the spot Bitcoin ETFs, to prevent a first-mover advantage.

What is driving the bitcoin rally?

Record inflows in the recently launched Bitcoin ETFs

The first spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched in January this year, and investors are rushing to invest in them. Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted everyday investors who want to buy digital assets through their brokerage accounts without going to a crypto exchange or to funds that track Bitcoin’s price through futures contracts.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust eclipsed $10 billion in assets Thursday, the fastest a new ETF has ever reached that milestone. Fidelity’s fund, with more than $6 billion in assets, is already the asset manager’s third-largest ETF and has accounted for most of its net ETF inflows this year.

Anticipation ahead of the halving event

The halving, also known as the “halvening,” is a scheduled event in Bitcoin’s protocol that occurs approximately every four years. During this event, Bitcoin miners’ reward for validating transactions and securing the network is halved. This reduction in the reward decreases the rate at which new bitcoins are created, effectively reducing the available supply.

The halving aims to control inflation and ensure that the total supply of bitcoins remains capped at 21 million, as specified in Bitcoin’s code. This scarcity is one of the key factors driving Bitcoin’s value.

The next bitcoin halving is expected to occur in April 2024, when the number of blocks hits 740,000. It will see the block reward fall from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins. The general consensus is that Bitcoin halving events are positive for the price of Bitcoin, and historically, they have been.

Flush liquidity and general risk-on environment

The Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility, or RRP—where eligible counterparties can park cash to earn a fixed rate—has been dwindling. This means that money market funds that parked excess cash at the RRP before have been withdrawing it, particularly to buy T-bills, adding to market liquidity. As hinted by Fed member Chris Waller, the Fed may be at a point to start discussing the tapering of QT.

Even as policy rates may remain higher for longer, the market is flush with liquidity. This could be partly fuelling the recent all-time highs across risk assets, including NASDAQ. Bitcoin remains sensitive to liquidity shifts, given it is a high-volatility tech proxy.

FOMO buying

For those undecided about entering the crypto sphere, few things induce more FOMO (fear of missing out) than witnessing Bitcoin’s ascent from the sidelines. Knowing others are making money while they’re not can push people to take big risks. Indeed, FOMO serves as a potent catalyst for impulsive buying decisions.

The fragmentation game

Bitcoin provides an alternative asset choice for those looking to diversify away from government-controlled assets. This has been a factor supporting gold, as many central banks have bought gold over the last few years to diversify their USD reserves. Bitcoin could face a similar demand if it is increasingly accepted as the ‘digital gold’ of the 21st century. However, there are inherent risks to consider. Presently, Bitcoin’s volatility makes it an unreliable store of value.

Exit from the crypto winter

The market seems to be healing from the aftermath of the crypto winter, marked by the collapse of firms like TerraLuna, Genesis, BlockFi, and FTX, which tarnished cryptocurrencies‘ reputation. A recent period of calm suggests stability, while some see it as a necessary cleanup of the crypto ecosystem.

Risk management is warranted

Bitcoin price action follows a high-beta cycle. When it rises, it rises fast, but when it falls, it also falls much quicker than other risk assets because of a high level of leveraged play in the crypto market. The recent run higher could have been a result of a short-squeeze, as strong ETF flows lead to higher prices and force some shorts to cover. Likewise, leveraged traders are forced to liquidate when the price declines, exacerbating the selloff. Thus, volatility is a key risk.

Also worth noting that speculative positioning is also long, which makes it potentially vulnerable to a reversal if ETF demand starts to moderate. Positioning in altcoins, such as Ether, is relatively more modest and long.

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Financial

Network International and Magnati Secure Key Regulatory Approvals for Merger

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Network International

Network International, a leading fintech company in the Middle East and Africa (MEA), and Magnati, a leading provider of payment solutions in the UAE, today announced that they have received key regulatory approvals to merge into a single entity, owned by a Brookfield-led consortium. The merger process is expected to be completed during Q3, 2025.

The merged entity will serve over 250 financial institutions, 240,000 businesses and more than 20 million cardholders across more than 50 markets in MEA.  With a comprehensive suite of offerings—including digital payments, data and insights, small business lending, and advanced fraud and security solutions, the merged organization is committed to enabling businesses. It will continue to partner with governments to support the digitization of economies and enable financial inclusion in the region.

With a focus on innovation, scale, and growth, the combined business is well-placed to capitalize on the fast-growing digital payments adoption by both consumers and merchants in the region, including mobile payments, e-commerce and cross border transactions. It will offer an expanded portfolio of products and services, tailored to meet the needs of customers, from SMEs to large enterprises and government agencies. Both companies will also realize sizable efficiencies and synergies, while expanding their operational reach across the MEA region.

“The combination of Network International and Magnati marks a pivotal moment in shaping the future of fintech in Middle East and Africa,” said Murat Cagri Suzer, Group CEO of Network International. “By combining our scale, talent, deep market expertise, and strong partnerships, we are creating the region’s largest and most capable fintech platform serving businesses, keeping payments at the core of our services. We are poised to unlock long-term growth with innovation and deliver even greater value to our customers, partners and shareholders.” The integration of both businesses will take place in a phased manner, and they will continue to operate as two separate brands, namely Network International and Magnati, for the time being.  

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How Ruya Is Redefining Faith-Aligned Financial Services in the UAE

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ruya

In an interview with Christoph Koster, CEO ruya we dive deep into how Ruya is blending technology, transparency, and Islamic principles to shape the future of finance in the UAE.

Could you take us through the journey of Ruya and what sets Ruya’s digital infrastructure apart from other digital or neo banks in the region?

 In 2024, ruya emerges as the UAE’s digital-first Islamic community bank, aiming to integrate modern financial technology with the principles of Islamic banking. The bank’s mission is to provide ethical, transparent, and inclusive financial services tailored to the diverse needs of its community.

A significant milestone in ruya’s journey is becoming the first Islamic bank globally to offer customers direct access to virtual asset investments, including Bitcoin, through its mobile app. This service is made possible through a strategic partnership with Fuze, a VARA-licensed leader in virtual asset service provider (VASP). Together, ruya and Fuze aim to provide a secure and ethical entry point into the digital economy for all Muslims, ensuring that the services are fully Shari’ah-compliant and aligned with the principles of Islamic finance.

Could you walk us through the customer journey—what does buying or selling crypto through ruya’s app actually look like?

The customer experience is designed to be straightforward and user-friendly. Customers can log into the ruya mobile app using secure authentication methods, navigate to the ‘Investments’ section, and select ‘Virtual Assets.’ First-time users complete a streamlined onboarding process, including understanding the terms and conditions and confirming their agreement to the terms and conditions. Subsequently, customers can buy or sell approved virtual assets, such as Bitcoin, with transactions executed in real-time. Users can monitor their virtual asset holdings, view transaction history. All transactions are conducted within a closed-loop system, ensuring security and compliance with Islamic banking principles.

Unlike many crypto platforms that encourage short-term trading, ruya promotes long-term wealth building—how is this being achieved in practice?

ruya’s approach to virtual asset investment focuses on promoting long-term wealth accumulation. Each virtual asset offered is vetted and approved by the bank’s Internal Shari’ah Supervisory Committee, ensuring alignment with Islamic ethical standards. The platform discourages speculative trading by focusing on assets with long-term growth potential and provides tools to support goal-oriented investment strategies. Through community centers and customer support channels, ruya offers personalized guidance to help customers align their investments with their financial goals.

What metrics or indicators does Ruya use to evaluate financial resilience and long-term value for customers investing in virtual assets?

To assess and enhance financial resilience, ruya monitors several key indicators, including customer engagement, investment behavior patterns, portfolio performance over time, and customer feedback gathered through surveys and support interactions. These metrics help the bank continuously improve its services and support mechanisms.

Ruya emphasizes a “customer-first” approach. How are you ensuring that customers feel informed, supported, and in control of their virtual asset investments?

The bank’s customer-first philosophy is implemented through transparent communication about investment options and associated risks, educational initiatives such as webinars and tutorials, personalized support via in-app chat, call centers, and community centers, and a user-friendly app interface that allows customers to easily navigate their investment options and monitor their portfolios.

What’s next for ruya—will we see expansion into other Shari’ah-compliant asset classes such as tokenized sukuks or digital gold?

Looking ahead, ruya is committed to expanding its suite of Shari’ah-compliant investment offerings. The bank is actively working on the integration of Shari’ah-compliant stocks & ETF trading, enabling access to over 60,000 instruments both local and global as well as tokenized sukuks to provide customers with access to Islamic bonds in a digital format, enhancing liquidity and accessibility. Development is also underway to offer gold investments, allowing customers to invest in gold through the platform in a manner that aligns with Islamic financial principles. These initiatives aim to diversify investment options for customers, enabling them to build robust, ethical, and future-ready portfolios.

In summary, ruya’s journey reflects a commitment to innovation, ethical banking, and community engagement. By integrating Shari’ah-compliant virtual asset investments into its digital platform, the bank provides customers with secure, ethical, and accessible financial services. The focus on long-term wealth building, financial resilience, and customer support ensures that ruya meets the evolving needs of its clientele while adhering to Islamic banking principles.

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Al Etihad Payments Elected to PCI SSC Board of Advisors for 2025–2027 Term

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AEP

Al Etihad Payments has been elected to the 2025–2027 Board of Advisors for the Payment Card Industry Security Standards Council (PCI SSC). AEP is among the first organizations from the Middle East to be elected to this global body driven by the UAE’s growing leadership in cybersecurity and payment system resilience on the international stage.

The PCI Security Standards Council (PCI SSC) leads a global, cross-industry effort to increase payment security by providing industry-driven, flexible, and effective data security standards and programs that help businesses detect, mitigate, and prevent cyberattacks and breaches.

Hani Bani Amer, Head of Information Security at AEP, will represent AEP as one of 64 global board members. He will serve as a strategic partner to the PCI SSC, contributing industry, regional, and technical expertise to support the Council’s mission of enhancing global payment security. The PCI SSC Board of Advisors plays a vital role in guiding the Council’s priorities and standard-setting initiatives. Members provide critical insights on global payment security trends, regional regulatory landscapes, and emerging technologies.

“Being elected to the PCI SSC Board of Advisors is both an honor and a responsibility”, said Hani Bani Amer. “Through our participation, we aim to ensure that our regional unique insights and perspectives are represented in the development of global standards, ultimately benefiting stakeholders locally and internationally. I look forward to working closely with my fellow Board members to advance strong, future-ready payment security standards that address today’s challenges and tomorrow’s cybersecurity threats.”

The new Board includes representatives from 61 organizations, reflecting the PCI SSC’s commitment to global inclusion. Members come from a wide range of sectors, including issuers, acquirers, merchants, processors, service providers, and technology companies.

Nitin Bhatnagar, Regional Director India, South Asia and Middle East, PCI Security Standards Council said, “Al Etihad Payments’ participation on the new 2025-2027 board of advisors from the Middle East (UAE) region is a critical voice that will help ensure greater regional input into our payment security standards, providing even more opportunities for discussion and collaboration with some of the most innovative voices in our industry. 

This term, in acknowledgment of the payments industry‘s ever-changing needs, the Board of Advisors has been expanded to a record 64 stakeholders, providing the Council with a broader range of views. The Board of Advisors will also be responsible for voting on new standards and major revisions to existing standards prior to their release. We are thrilled to welcome Al Etihad Payments to the newly elected 2025-2027 Board of Advisors.”

AEP continues to play a key role in advancing the UAE’s digital economy through initiatives such as Aani, the real-time payments platform, and Jaywan, the domestic card scheme. AEP is building a secure, resilient, and inclusive payments ecosystem. Both platforms are designed to meet local market needs while embedding global best practices for data protection and transaction security. By joining the PCI SSC Board of Advisors, AEP strengthens its commitment to adopting and shaping industry-driven, flexible, and effective security standards that safeguard sensitive payment data across every layer of the digital payments journey from cards to real-time transfers.

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