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The Middle East’s New Role in a Post-Tariff Global Economy

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Post-Tariff Global Economy

As Trump’s trade barriers fragment established commerce patterns, Middle Eastern economies canposition themselves as essential connectors

By Pankajj Ghode, CEO, Elmirate

President Trump’s “America First” trade policy has redrawn the global economic map. China now faces 34% tariffs, India contends with 26%, and European allies must navigate 20% levies on their U.S. exports. Global businesses are rapidly adjusting to this new reality, rethinking where they manufacture, how they ship, and which markets deserve priority.

The Middle East stands at the center of this shifting landscape. The immediate economic impact of Trump’s tariffs on Middle Eastern economies is significant. The region exported over $76.24 billion in goods to the U.S. in 2023, with key sectors including mineral fuels, metals, and industrial equipment now facing varying degrees of tariff pressure.

Yet beneath these headline figures lies a more complex reality. The UAE has maintained robust trade with the U.S., with bilateral flows reaching approximately $27 billion in 2024. This relationship has created a $19.5 billion U.S. trade surplus – a fact that may shield the UAE from the most punitive aspects of the new tariff regime.

The real opportunity, however, lies in how Middle Eastern economies position themselves within the disrupted global trade architecture. As manufacturers from China and India search for alternative production bases and export routes, GCC countries offer strategic advantages that few other regions can match.

Evidence of this shift already appears in economic data. Foreign company registrations in UAE free zones rose 22% in 2024 as businesses seek tariff-neutral operations. Manufacturing foreign direct investment across the GCC is growing at 18% annually, outpacing global averages and reflecting the region’s newfound appeal as a production base.

Capturing production shifts

The Middle East’s strategic response to global tariff tensions extends beyond passive accommodation to active industrial development. Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port, which handled over 21.7 million TEUs of cargo in 2023, forms the centerpiece of a logistics network specifically designed to facilitate value-added re-exports. These facilities allow goods from tariff-affected nations to undergo sufficient transformation to qualify as GCC-origin products, essentially creating a sophisticated tariff arbitrage mechanism that benefits local economies.

This capacity comes at a critical moment. World Bank economic projections suggest Middle Eastern countries could capture up to 7% of China’s manufacturing output seeking new homes – representing a potential $31 billion economic boost by 2026. The sectors most likely to relocate include electronics assembly, automotive components, and pharmaceutical production – all areas where GCC countries have made strategic investments.

The financial infrastructure to support this transition exists and continues to expand. Middle Eastern banking institutions have developed specialized trade finance mechanisms specifically designed to manage tariff-related risks. Trade finance volume in Dubai alone is projected to expand by $3.5 billion by 2026, creating the liquidity necessary to fund manufacturing relocation and export growth.

Leveraging eastward relationships

The Middle East’s geographic and diplomatic position between East and West has taken on renewed economic significance. GCC trade with China reached $286.9 billion in 2023, while India-GCC commerce grew to $111.7 billion during the 2022-2023 fiscal year.

These established relationships serve as the foundation for more sophisticated economic arrangements in the tariff-affected landscape. Chinese investments in GCC infrastructure have accelerated, particularly in industrial zones and logistics networks aligned with both China’s Belt and Road Initiative and regional development plans.

India has similarly intensified its economic engagement with the Gulf. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and the UAE has boosted non-oil trade by 14% since implementation, reaching $50.5 billion in 2023. This agreement creates mechanisms for Indian manufacturers to access U.S. markets via UAE-based value addition and re-export operations.

The Middle East has thus positioned itself as the connective tissue in a fragmented global trade system – offering both China and India partial insulation from U.S. tariff barriers while maintaining its own productive economic relationship with America.

Technology as trade facilitator

The Middle East’s response to trade disruption extends into the digital realm as well. Across the GCC, governments have been investing in advanced customs and trade facilitation technologies, with a particular focus on blockchain applications that can streamline cross-border commerce.

These digital platforms aim to reduce documentation requirements, eliminate redundant verification steps, and accelerate customs clearance processes. For businesses navigating complex tariff regulations, these technological advances offer significant advantages in maintaining supply chain efficiency.

Financial innovation complements these logistics improvements. Banking institutions across the region have developed specialized trade finance products designed to mitigate risks associated with changing tariff structures. Digital payment systems further reduce friction in cross-border transactions, allowing businesses to adapt more quickly to evolving trade conditions.

These technological capabilities strengthen the Middle East’s position as a trade intermediary during this period of global commercial realignment. Digital innovation creates an operational advantage that complements the region’s geographic and infrastructural strengths.

Choosing regional leadership

The U.S. pursuit of protectionist trade policies presents Middle Eastern economies with both immediate challenges and long-term strategic opportunities. The region appears firmly committed to the latter path.

The Middle East has assessed global trade realignments and identified strategic advantages. While other regions scramble to mitigate damage, GCC states are methodically expanding logistics capacity and developing trade corridors with emerging African markets. This calculated approach shifts our position in global commerce from reactive participants to strategic influencers – a necessary evolution given the fragmentation of traditional trade networks.

We’ve transformed our economies before, boldly shifting from petroleum dependence toward diversified, future-ready industries. This moment of global trade reconfiguration presents a similar opportunity for visionary action.

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Legacy planning: The clause you’ll never see, but every Will needs

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Authored By:
Pooja Bhattia, Solicitor &
Nazneen Abbas, Founder, Ma’an

When a Dubai family recently attempted to execute a Will that divided everything “equally,” the process turned unexpectedly complicated. The father had left behind three properties, a thriving trading business, and a handful of investments. On paper, each heir was entitled to one-third. In practice, however, the math didn’t add up.

Two of the properties required transfer fees before the titles could change. The business needed a professional valuation before any shares could move.

One child wanted to retain the family home, another wanted their share in cash, and the third had settled abroad, facing foreign tax liabilities. The estate was rich in assets but poor in liquidity. What seemed like a clear-cut Will became a year-long exercise in negotiation, paperwork, and frustration.

This is the quiet problem most families never anticipate. A Will can divide ownership, but it cannot generate liquidity. Without readily available funds to meet transfer fees, buyouts, and taxes, the process of inheritance becomes logistically and emotionally taxing.

 

The invisible thread between fairness and liquidity

Estate planning conversations often revolve around fairness: ensuring that every child or beneficiary receives an equal share. Yet, fairness depends not just on value but on accessibility. An heir inheriting property worth millions may find it difficult to sell or borrow against it. Another inheriting shares in a family business may have no interest or capacity to manage it. Without liquidity, equality on paper can quickly turn into imbalance in practice.

Lawyers can draft the most carefully worded Wills, but unless they account for liquidity, execution remains vulnerable. The costs of succession – transfer charges, administrative fees, professional valuations, and in some cases, estate taxes – arrive well before any inheritance is realized. Families often find themselves dipping into personal savings, taking loans, or reluctantly selling assets just to complete what was intended to be a smooth transition.

Liquidity: The quiet equalizer


To bridge this gap, experienced planners build in financial solutions that create liquidity at precisely the right time. These may include structured portfolios, annuity plans, dedicated investment buckets, life insurance arrangements, or a combination of all three. The label matters less than the outcome: a pool of liquidity available when the estate most needs it.

For many families, the challenge arises not from a lack of assets but from a lack of accessible cash to make those assets usable. A property cannot be transferred without fees, a business cannot be divided without valuation, and heirs living abroad may face taxes before they can claim what they inherit. The purpose of these financial plans is to ensure that when such obligations arise, the necessary liquidity already exists.

In legal drafting, these provisions are rarely described by the name of a product. Instead, they appear through clauses addressing estate equalisation, shareholder protection, or tax optimisation – terms that focus on the outcome rather than the instrument. This approach keeps Wills concise while allowing flexibility for the underlying financial architecture to adapt over time. The result is subtle but significant: heirs receive not just assets, but the ability to act on them.

Consider again the Dubai family. With a well-structured liquidity clause, one heir could have drawn on pre-arranged funds to pay the transfer fee and retain the home. Another could have bought out a sibling’s business shares, while the third could have met foreign tax obligations without selling inherited assets. Instead of disputes and delays, execution would have been straightforward, preserving both relationships and value.

Business continuity and fair valuation

Among entrepreneurs, this liquidity gap often runs deeper. Many business owners assume that dividing shares equally among children ensures fairness. Yet, few pause to consider what happens when only one or two heirs wish to continue the business.

Without liquidity, buyouts become impossible. Those running the enterprise must continue to share profits with siblings who contribute nothing to its growth, breeding resentment on both sides. A well-drafted Will therefore includes a clause that mandates valuation of the company at the time of death and provides a mechanism for exit – often funded through pre-planned financial solutions such as insurance, annuity contracts, or investment plans earmarked for succession.

In such cases, these instruments are not a safety net, but a continuity tool. They provide the cash flow that keeps ownership clean, operations uninterrupted, and family dynamics intact. The alternative – co-ownership without clarity – can stall decision-making and diminish the very business meant to support future generations.

Navigating cross-border tax exposure

Modern families are increasingly international. Parents may reside in the UAE, while children live or work abroad, in jurisdictions where inheritances attract income, estate, or wealth taxes. The very act of inheriting can push an heir into a higher tax bracket. Well-structured financial instruments can efficiently offset cross-border liabilities.

Clients are sometimes surprised that their legal documents focus on principles such as estate equalisation, shareholder protection, or tax optimisation rather than naming specific products like insurance. This is deliberate. A Will is a legal document; it defines intentions and outcomes. The financial architecture that supports those clauses is built through separate planning, which can evolve over time.

Behind that discretion lies pragmatism. Financial tools evolve, regulations shift, and family circumstances change. What matters is not the name of the mechanism but its function: to ensure that cash exists where the law and logic demand it most.

Designing for peace of mind

A well-structured estate plan treats liquidity planning as part of its core architecture. It supports every transfer clause, equalisation formula, and tax-planning provision, ensuring that the Will delivers real, actionable outcomes. These financial solutions – whether investment-based, annuity-linked, or insurance-backed – act as quiet safeguards that help preserve what matters most.

The most successful successions are often the quietest. Properties change hands without conflict, businesses continue seamlessly, and families remain intact. To outsiders, it may appear as though the Will “worked perfectly.” In reality, what worked was the preparation – the foresight to pair legal precision with financial planning that sustains both assets and harmony.

People spend lifetimes building security for their families, and inheritance should strengthen that harmony, not test it. When liquidity is thoughtfully built into an estate plan, a legacy becomes less a transfer of wealth and more a continuation of peace.

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StashAway broadens private market access for UAE-based HNWIs amid strong growth

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High-net-worth investors now account for over 75% of UAE deposits, and StashAway is responding with new semi-liquid portfolios that broaden access to private markets.


StashAway, a wealth management platform, is offering UAE-based high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) greater opportunities to build long-term wealth through private markets1. The move follows a year of strong growth among its high-net-worth clients, with this segment driving over 75% of its growth in the UAE over the past 12 months.

The new semi-liquid offerings – private infrastructure and private equity portfolios – are managed by Hamilton Lane, a global private market specialist with over US $956 billion in assets under management. With these portfolios, investors will benefit from significantly lower minimums, lower fees, and monthly liquidity, providing flexibility than traditional funds typically lack.

StashAway’s momentum reflects a broader trend: Nearly 10,000 new millionaires are expected to arrive in the UAE by the end of 2025. As the country continues to attract global wealth, its wealth management landscape is becoming increasingly digital, with growing demand from affluent investors for alternative investment opportunities.

Increasing demand for private market investment opportunities

Globally, private markets are reshaping the investment landscape, with the number of publicly listed companies declining significantly over the past 25 years. Recent data revealed there are just 2,800 public companies, compared to 18,000 private businesses with annual revenues above US $100 million in the United States. This disparity underscores that opportunities to build wealth will increasingly be found in private markets, both in the US and worldwide.

With StashAway’s expanded private market offering, UAE-based HNWIs can tap into these growth opportunities. Clients can now access private infrastructure and private equity – an asset class with target net annual returns of 10-12%2.

Michele Ferrario, Co-founder and CEO, StashAway comments, “We’ve seen tremendous demand from high-net-worth investors who value the transparency and unbiased wealth advisory that we offer. Now, we’re bringing that same trusted experience to private markets, making it simple for investors to access high-quality, institutional-class opportunities.”

In line with StashAway’s existing private markets offering, both portfolios have significantly lower minimums and fees compared to private banks. While private banks often charge up to 3.5% in total management fees, StashAway clients pay a management fee as low as 0.5%. Unlike traditional private market funds with 10 to 15 year lock-ups, StashAway’s new portfolios allow investors to access their capital after a short initial lock-up period – offering greater flexibility as their financial goals evolve.

Raaed Sheibani, UAE Country Manager, StashAway adds, “A diversified portfolio with exposure to private markets is vital for high-net-worth investors seeking to build long-term wealth. But many clients tell us that high minimums and long lock-ups of traditional private market funds make it hard to get started or maintain the right allocation. We’re committed to making these opportunities more accessible. Our semi-liquid offering does exactly that – providing flexible access without tying investors into multi-year lock-ups.”

Both portfolios offer multi-manager & sector diversification through a single investment. The Private Infrastructure portfolio provides exposure across sectors such as energy, transport, digital networks, and utilities. The Private Equity portfolio is diversified across private equity life stages, geographies, and vintages.

Historically, both asset classes have outperformed public equities, while simultaneously experiencing lower volatility. As an example, a 10% private infrastructure allocation to a traditional 60/40 portfolio from 2014 to 2024 would have increased returns by 5.3% and reduced volatility by 10.6%. They are therefore essential to strengthening long-term portfolios.

These portfolios reflect StashAway’s broader commitment to simplifying access to the best investment solutions. They expand the platform’s suite of HNW offerings, which also includes Private Credit and unbiased wealth advisory for StashAway Reserve clients.

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EDB’s New Documentary Puts the Human Face on the UAE’s Economic Transformation

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Emirates Development Bank (EDB), the UAE’s leading national development bank driving economic diversification and industrial growth, has premiered its groundbreaking documentary, The Multiplier Effect, at an exclusive VIP screening at Cinema Akil. The film marks a new chapter in financial storytelling, highlighting the inspiring human stories behind the nation’s economic transformation.

Developed in partnership with the Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology (MoIAT)’s ‘Make it in the Emirates’ initiative and the Ministry of Economy and Tourism’s ‘Startup Capital of the World’ national initiative, the documentary offers an intimate look at how strategic support creates a ripple effect of progress across society. It follows the inspiring stories of three entrepreneurs who, with EDB’s support, have overcome immense personal and professional challenges to build businesses in the UAE. By showcasing these real journeys of resilience and innovation, the film aims to inspire the next generation of entrepreneurs to take bold steps in building the UAE’s entrepreneurial nation.

Through a partnership with STARZPLAY, the documentary will be streamed to audiences across the region, with its public launch set for December 2nd, a tribute to the UAE’s visionary leadership and national spirit.

The premiere was attended by representatives from the Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology, the Ministry of Economy and Tourism, and other government partners, as well as senior executives from STARZPLAY, alongside EDB partners from the public and private sectors, entrepreneurs from the industrial ecosystem, and leading media representatives.

H.E. Ahmed Mohamed Al Naqbi, Chief Executive Officer of Emirates Development Bank, said: “The Multiplier Effect highlights the people and ideas driving the UAE’s economic transformation. At EDB, our mission is straightforward: when we finance growth, the nation grows. Every business we support contributes to jobs, innovation, and long-term value for the country. This film shows that impact clearly. By backing ambitious founders and working closely with our government and partners, we are strengthening the foundations of a diversified and future-ready economy.”

As the UAE’s national development bank, EDB plays a critical role in advancing the country’s economic diversification agenda and supporting the National Strategy for Industry and Advanced Technology. The documentary highlights how EDB’s support and financing in priority sectors, including advanced technology, food security, and healthcare, is creating a powerful multiplier effect that drives economic growth, job creation, and self-sufficiency.

H.E. Abdulaziz Al-Nuaimi, Assistant Undersecretary for Entrepreneurship and the Economic Affairs Regulatory Sector, Ministry of Economy and Tourism, said: “The UAE’s vision for economic development is fundamentally people-centric. We measure success not only by outputs, but also by the human spirit and resilience — the founders who take risks, innovate, and shape new industries. This same vision lies at the core of the ‘Startup Capital of the World’ campaign. It is not just about numbers or rankings; it is primarily about fostering a culture where entrepreneurship becomes a natural and celebrated path for the UAE’s youth. When government, financial institutions, investors, and industry work seamlessly together, entrepreneurs gain the confidence to take bold steps. The stories featured in this film show exactly what that ecosystem makes possible, and how it inspires many more to contribute to a diversified, future-ready economy.”

The documentary features:

  • Rashid Al Sulmi, the founder of SULMI, who risked his family’s legacy to build the UAE’s first electric motorbike from scratch in his garage. SULMI is a graduate of the Make it in the Emirates Accelerator, launched in partnership with MoIAT earlier this year at the Make it in the Emirates 2025 event.
  • Bodour Al Tamimi,the founder of Pure Soil, a mother who turned her battle with autoimmune disease into a thriving organic food business, proving that world-class, healthy products can be made in the UAE. Pure Soil is also a graduate of the Make it in the Emirates Accelerator.
  • Hiba Orfahli, a cancer survivor who, just weeks before her wedding, found hope in a pioneering, scarless surgical procedure at Oriana Hospital in Sharjah – a healthcare facility supported by EDB – enabling her to start a family.

Since launching its strategy in 2021, EDB has provided more than AED 22.6 billion in total financing, created over 38,000 jobs, and contributed over AED 10 billion to the UAE’s industrial GDP.

Beyond financing, EDB plays a pivotal role in building a thriving entrepreneurial ecosystem that empowers businesses to scale and succeed. Through initiatives like the AGRIX Accelerator and Make it in the Emirates Accelerator, EDB provides entrepreneurs with strategic mentorship, technical expertise, market access, and connections to a network of partners and resources. This holistic approach ensures that entrepreneurs and growing businesses receive not just finance, but the comprehensive support needed to transform ambitious ideas into globally competitive enterprises that drive the UAE’s industrial future.

Beyond documenting success, “The Multiplier Effect” serves as a powerful call to action for aspiring entrepreneurs across the UAE and beyond. Each story demonstrates that with the right support, determination, and ecosystem, ambitious ideas can transform into world-class businesses that create jobs, advance industries, and inspire others to pursue their entrepreneurial dreams. “The Multiplier Effect” will be available for public viewing on December 2nd. EDB encourages all media partners to embed the full documentary to share these inspiring stories with the world and fuel the entrepreneurial spirit that is building the UAE’s future.

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