Financial
The Middle East’s New Role in a Post-Tariff Global Economy
As Trump’s trade barriers fragment established commerce patterns, Middle Eastern economies canposition themselves as essential connectors
By Pankajj Ghode, CEO, Elmirate

President Trump’s “America First” trade policy has redrawn the global economic map. China now faces 34% tariffs, India contends with 26%, and European allies must navigate 20% levies on their U.S. exports. Global businesses are rapidly adjusting to this new reality, rethinking where they manufacture, how they ship, and which markets deserve priority.
The Middle East stands at the center of this shifting landscape. The immediate economic impact of Trump’s tariffs on Middle Eastern economies is significant. The region exported over $76.24 billion in goods to the U.S. in 2023, with key sectors including mineral fuels, metals, and industrial equipment now facing varying degrees of tariff pressure.
Yet beneath these headline figures lies a more complex reality. The UAE has maintained robust trade with the U.S., with bilateral flows reaching approximately $27 billion in 2024. This relationship has created a $19.5 billion U.S. trade surplus – a fact that may shield the UAE from the most punitive aspects of the new tariff regime.
The real opportunity, however, lies in how Middle Eastern economies position themselves within the disrupted global trade architecture. As manufacturers from China and India search for alternative production bases and export routes, GCC countries offer strategic advantages that few other regions can match.
Evidence of this shift already appears in economic data. Foreign company registrations in UAE free zones rose 22% in 2024 as businesses seek tariff-neutral operations. Manufacturing foreign direct investment across the GCC is growing at 18% annually, outpacing global averages and reflecting the region’s newfound appeal as a production base.
Capturing production shifts
The Middle East’s strategic response to global tariff tensions extends beyond passive accommodation to active industrial development. Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port, which handled over 21.7 million TEUs of cargo in 2023, forms the centerpiece of a logistics network specifically designed to facilitate value-added re-exports. These facilities allow goods from tariff-affected nations to undergo sufficient transformation to qualify as GCC-origin products, essentially creating a sophisticated tariff arbitrage mechanism that benefits local economies.
This capacity comes at a critical moment. World Bank economic projections suggest Middle Eastern countries could capture up to 7% of China’s manufacturing output seeking new homes – representing a potential $31 billion economic boost by 2026. The sectors most likely to relocate include electronics assembly, automotive components, and pharmaceutical production – all areas where GCC countries have made strategic investments.
The financial infrastructure to support this transition exists and continues to expand. Middle Eastern banking institutions have developed specialized trade finance mechanisms specifically designed to manage tariff-related risks. Trade finance volume in Dubai alone is projected to expand by $3.5 billion by 2026, creating the liquidity necessary to fund manufacturing relocation and export growth.
Leveraging eastward relationships
The Middle East’s geographic and diplomatic position between East and West has taken on renewed economic significance. GCC trade with China reached $286.9 billion in 2023, while India-GCC commerce grew to $111.7 billion during the 2022-2023 fiscal year.
These established relationships serve as the foundation for more sophisticated economic arrangements in the tariff-affected landscape. Chinese investments in GCC infrastructure have accelerated, particularly in industrial zones and logistics networks aligned with both China’s Belt and Road Initiative and regional development plans.
India has similarly intensified its economic engagement with the Gulf. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and the UAE has boosted non-oil trade by 14% since implementation, reaching $50.5 billion in 2023. This agreement creates mechanisms for Indian manufacturers to access U.S. markets via UAE-based value addition and re-export operations.
The Middle East has thus positioned itself as the connective tissue in a fragmented global trade system – offering both China and India partial insulation from U.S. tariff barriers while maintaining its own productive economic relationship with America.
Technology as trade facilitator
The Middle East’s response to trade disruption extends into the digital realm as well. Across the GCC, governments have been investing in advanced customs and trade facilitation technologies, with a particular focus on blockchain applications that can streamline cross-border commerce.
These digital platforms aim to reduce documentation requirements, eliminate redundant verification steps, and accelerate customs clearance processes. For businesses navigating complex tariff regulations, these technological advances offer significant advantages in maintaining supply chain efficiency.
Financial innovation complements these logistics improvements. Banking institutions across the region have developed specialized trade finance products designed to mitigate risks associated with changing tariff structures. Digital payment systems further reduce friction in cross-border transactions, allowing businesses to adapt more quickly to evolving trade conditions.
These technological capabilities strengthen the Middle East’s position as a trade intermediary during this period of global commercial realignment. Digital innovation creates an operational advantage that complements the region’s geographic and infrastructural strengths.
Choosing regional leadership
The U.S. pursuit of protectionist trade policies presents Middle Eastern economies with both immediate challenges and long-term strategic opportunities. The region appears firmly committed to the latter path.
The Middle East has assessed global trade realignments and identified strategic advantages. While other regions scramble to mitigate damage, GCC states are methodically expanding logistics capacity and developing trade corridors with emerging African markets. This calculated approach shifts our position in global commerce from reactive participants to strategic influencers – a necessary evolution given the fragmentation of traditional trade networks.
We’ve transformed our economies before, boldly shifting from petroleum dependence toward diversified, future-ready industries. This moment of global trade reconfiguration presents a similar opportunity for visionary action.
Financial
Finastra’s Saudi Arabia Reimagine Banking Forum Spotlights Innovation, Trust, and AI in a Vision 2030 Financial Landscape
Finastra, a global leader in financial services software, brought together regulators, banks, fintechs, and technology leaders at the Saudi Arabia Reimagine Banking Forum in Riyadh to examine how the Kingdom’s financial sector can accelerate innovation while protecting trust, resilience, and customer value under Vision 2030.
The forum featured perspectives from regional and global experts, including Rudy Kawmi, Vice President for Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific, Universal Banking at Finastra, along with senior leaders such as Abdulkarim Alsowaygh, Head of Advisory Services at TechArch, and Aymen Belhedi, Digital and Technology Transformation Leader at KPMG Middle East.
As the conversation turned to how banks can turn ideas into action, Finastra shared perspectives based on its long-standing work with financial institutions in the Kingdom, where it has supported banks since the early nineties through local expertise, established relationships and ongoing investment. The company referenced the role of modern core platforms like Essence, in supporting agility, compliance and customer-centric design. Finastra Essence was also recognized as a Leader for the 2nd consecutive time in the Gartner Magic Quadrant for Retail Core Banking Systems, Europe.
Across three panel discussions – Banking Today: Delivering delight in a hyper competitive world, Banking Tomorrow: Innovation, agility and relevance, and Practical AI: Leveraging AI for profit, safely and securely – speakers shared practical strategies to balance regulatory expectations, customer needs, and technology adoption.
Key insights from the Saudi Arabia Reimagine Banking Forum include:
Innovation anchored in trust and compliance
Panelists agreed that innovation in Saudi banking must begin with trust. Cybersecurity, regulatory alignment and security maturity were described as non-negotiables, not afterthoughts. Speakers highlighted the role of the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) in setting clear guardrails through initiatives such as API-driven banking frameworks and the Regulatory Sandbox, enabling banks and fintechs to experiment in controlled environments while protecting consumers and financial stability.
From product proliferation to precision, lifestyle-integrated banking
The discussion underlined a shift from launching more products to delivering precise, contextual experiences. Banks in Saudi Arabia are under pressure to evolve from traditional service providers into lifestyle platforms that integrate payments, credit and everyday services into the digital journeys customers already use. With the risk of banking drifting into a utility model, where providers are interchangeable, panelists called on institutions to differentiate through relevance, immediacy and purposeful design, not just scale.
Ecosystem orchestration as the new competitive edge
Speakers stressed that no institution can innovate in isolation. Banks that act as ecosystem orchestrators, curating fintech, technology and cybersecurity partners while owning the “trust layer”, are better positioned to deliver new propositions quickly. Internal teams, advisors and partners form a single value chain. The conversation moved beyond capability lists toward how those capabilities are combined, governed and brought to market at speed.
Data and AI turning trusted information into intelligence
Data was described as a critical and often underused asset. Panelists highlighted that the real opportunity lies not in collecting more data but in converting trusted data into actionable intelligence. In this context, AI and generative AI can help banks move from reactive service models to proactive, personalized engagement, provided governance keeps pace. With the right tools and controls, small teams can now deliver improvements in productivity and customer experience that previously required much larger workforces.
Practical, ethical AI with humans firmly in the loop
The AI discussion focused heavily on ethics, explainability and human oversight. Panelists warned against black-box systems in areas such as credit decisions and collections, where AI outcomes directly affect people’s lives. They emphasized the need to identify and address bias in training data and to keep humans accountable for final decisions. AI was positioned as a powerful tool to automate repetitive tasks, assist agents and accelerate analysis, while freeing people to concentrate on higher value work.
Technology is available, but adoption remains gradual
Speakers noted that while the technology to support next-generation services is already in place, adoption timelines can vary. Some innovations introduced in pilot phases have taken time to progress to full rollout, reflecting the sector’s careful approach to implementation. The discussion highlighted opportunities for continued progress in areas such as real time, transparent cross-border payments and fully digital account opening that reduces the need for in-branch processes.
Across all sessions, there was a consistent message: Saudi Arabia is setting a high bar for responsible innovation by combining a progressive regulator, a clear national agenda and banks that are re-architecting for trust, speed and inclusion. The future of banking in the Kingdom will belong to institutions that innovate boldly, design for resilience, and earn customer trust every day.
Financial
Rostro Group Enters UAE with New SCA Licence Amid the Country’s 20% Fintech Growth Surge
Rostro Group, an international diversified fintech and financial services group, has obtained a Category 5 license from the UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA), marking a significant step in its long-term commitment to shape the UAE’s future financial ecosystem.
The UAE’s fintech ecosystem continues to expand at an exceptional pace, supported by progressive regulation, rising investor appetite, and strong government initiatives. Recent industry reports from bodies such as the MENA Fintech Association and Magnitt indicate that the UAE consistently attracts over 40–45% of all fintech investments in the region, reinforcing its position as the leading fintech hub in MENA.
Looking ahead, the sector in the UAE is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of more than 20% over the next five years, driven by increasing adoption of digital payments, rapid expansion in wealth-tech and digital brokerage services, and continued regulatory enhancements from bodies such as the SCA and ADGM. With this momentum, the UAE is well-positioned to remain a regional centre of innovation, capital formation, and digital financial transformation.
With UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) strengthening oversight and raising industry standards, the approval recognizes Rostro Group as a compliant and trusted participant in the country’s expanding financial landscape. It also allows the Group to operate in line with UAE’s expectations for transparency, investor protection and responsible market engagement.
Based in the UAE, the Group is led by CEO Michael Ayres, who has long-standing experience in the region’s fintech sector. Speaking about the SCA approval, Ayres highlighted that Dubai and Abu Dhabi’s rapid evolution into a future-ready financial ecosystem is unmatched.
Ayres said, “We at Rostro Group see the UAE as one of the most forward-thinking financial centres, one that will soon rival leading centres like London, Singapore or New York. Securing this licence deepens our alignment with the country’s vision to build a tech-first, institutionally robust financial ecosystem and propels our contribution to its next phase of growth.”
Rostro Group’s multi-brand structure is built to serve diverse categories of investors through a unified global ecosystem. Its Scope Prime division supports institutional clients with industry leading trading infrastructure, while Scope Markets offers individuals streamlined access to global trading and investing opportunities.
In recent years, the product offering of Rostro Group has been widened to include access to over 60 regional CFD equities, as well as the development of proprietary CFD indices to mirror the performance of the Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock markets.
Local banking relationships have already been established. In addition, Rostro’s Scope Prime division is now ready to provide multi-asset prime brokerage services to financial institutions across the GCC, whilst the retail client-facing Scope Markets division has the ability to offer account types denominated in multiple currencies including AED and USD.
Financial
AI gives Gulf banks the edge in managing liquidity with confidence
Integrated platforms and data-driven agility will allow IFIs to meet rising expectations and shape global standards
By Matthew Nassau, Business Architect, Treasury & Capital Markets at Finastra
Markets move in cycles. Each generation experiences most of the things that previous generations have endured (bull or bear markets, natural disasters, geopolitics, …) punctuated by turning points from which the future takes a distinct path (powered flight, the transistor, The Beatles, …). These highlights are often recognized early on as important in their day and seem to appear ‘overnight’, and yet have taken years of development and formation to appear in our consciousness, while the lasting extent of their transformative power is not fully appreciated.
Generative AI (GenAI) fits the model described above, poised as it is to revolutionize treasury and capital markets by markedly altering decision-making processes for market professionals. From conversational finance to predictive analytics, AI is evolving from a mere assistant to becoming a crucial decision-making tool. In Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, GenAI could add between USD 21 billion and 35 billion each year, on top of roughly USD 150 billion that existing AI technologies are expected to contribute. That represents about 1.7 to 2.8% of the region’s current non-oil GDP.
To deliver on this potential, it is essential that financial institutions have access to high-quality data, upon which GenAI can infer connections, deliver insights and enable actions.
Data has never looked so good
Data has long been treated as one of the most important assets in financial services. Vendors have built major businesses supplying real-time market feeds, and institutions invest heavily to safeguard customer information in every form. The value is clear. What is changing is how much more that value can grow as GenAI gains access to richer and more precise datasets. Large language models can spot relationships and trends that were previously buried, turning raw information into forecasts, alerts and actions that support commercial and risk decisions.
Unlocking that potential requires broader access to the information that treasury teams already rely on. Data lakes and warehouses form part of the picture, but they rarely capture everything. Treasury management systems are a prime example. Their reporting evolves constantly and plays a central role in liquidity decisions, yet much of it remains confined within the system. By making these reporting histories available to GenAI, banks can reveal patterns over time, flag emerging opportunities or risks and prompt timely intervention.
Timing is everything
To show how quickly things have shifted, consider a discussion I had with a major European bank a few years ago. The team was exploring how to treat treasury and capital markets data as a strategic asset without forcing everything into one central system. Their vision was a unified data layer where information could stay within existing applications yet still be accessed, combined and analyzed by staff using low code tools. The goal was to shift toward more data-driven decision making across the business and to uncover new sources of commercial value.
The concept was sound, but the technology required to deliver it at scale was simply too expensive and complex at the time. The bank had to narrow its ambitions and proceed with smaller, tactical initiatives. Artificial intelligence was not even part of the conversation. It felt experimental and far removed from daily operations.
Looking back, the idea wasn’t premature in strategy, only in timing. GenAI now makes this kind of agile, distributed data insight far more realistic.
‘Go big or go home’ – not any more
Expectations have moved on as technology has matured and become easier to access. The old way of classifying data projects as either short-term tactical fixes or long-term strategic overhauls no longer applies. GenAI changes the conversation. It shifts focus from where data lives to how much value it can generate. Deploying AI in specific functions like operations, the front office or reconciliation isn’t a stopgap. It’s a practical way to unlock intelligence quickly.
What will determine success is an institution’s ability to surface a wide range of data, ensure its accuracy and let AI learn from it. This doesn’t require a massive transformation program from day one. Starting with focused use cases can improve efficiency, reduce manual work and reveal valuable insights straight away. As more processes become AI-enabled, those individual wins begin to connect, creating a stronger and more intelligent foundation across the entire organization.
Outcomes lead to incomes
When a technology is still emerging, no one can predict with certainty how far its influence will reach. The best indicators often come from those willing to adopt early and test ideas in the real world. Many concepts compete for relevance, and only a few will ultimately reshape how people work.
The organizations that benefit most are the ones comfortable experimenting, moving quickly and learning as they go. GenAI encourages exactly that mindset. It allows teams to explore and refine new approaches by tapping into the data they already hold. The results show up in lower costs, stronger client value and healthier margins.
This shift is not about replacing existing business models but enhancing them. Each step forward can deliver outsized returns for firms confident enough to start now.
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