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The Middle East’s New Role in a Post-Tariff Global Economy

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Post-Tariff Global Economy

As Trump’s trade barriers fragment established commerce patterns, Middle Eastern economies canposition themselves as essential connectors

By Pankajj Ghode, CEO, Elmirate

President Trump’s “America First” trade policy has redrawn the global economic map. China now faces 34% tariffs, India contends with 26%, and European allies must navigate 20% levies on their U.S. exports. Global businesses are rapidly adjusting to this new reality, rethinking where they manufacture, how they ship, and which markets deserve priority.

The Middle East stands at the center of this shifting landscape. The immediate economic impact of Trump’s tariffs on Middle Eastern economies is significant. The region exported over $76.24 billion in goods to the U.S. in 2023, with key sectors including mineral fuels, metals, and industrial equipment now facing varying degrees of tariff pressure.

Yet beneath these headline figures lies a more complex reality. The UAE has maintained robust trade with the U.S., with bilateral flows reaching approximately $27 billion in 2024. This relationship has created a $19.5 billion U.S. trade surplus – a fact that may shield the UAE from the most punitive aspects of the new tariff regime.

The real opportunity, however, lies in how Middle Eastern economies position themselves within the disrupted global trade architecture. As manufacturers from China and India search for alternative production bases and export routes, GCC countries offer strategic advantages that few other regions can match.

Evidence of this shift already appears in economic data. Foreign company registrations in UAE free zones rose 22% in 2024 as businesses seek tariff-neutral operations. Manufacturing foreign direct investment across the GCC is growing at 18% annually, outpacing global averages and reflecting the region’s newfound appeal as a production base.

Capturing production shifts

The Middle East’s strategic response to global tariff tensions extends beyond passive accommodation to active industrial development. Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port, which handled over 21.7 million TEUs of cargo in 2023, forms the centerpiece of a logistics network specifically designed to facilitate value-added re-exports. These facilities allow goods from tariff-affected nations to undergo sufficient transformation to qualify as GCC-origin products, essentially creating a sophisticated tariff arbitrage mechanism that benefits local economies.

This capacity comes at a critical moment. World Bank economic projections suggest Middle Eastern countries could capture up to 7% of China’s manufacturing output seeking new homes – representing a potential $31 billion economic boost by 2026. The sectors most likely to relocate include electronics assembly, automotive components, and pharmaceutical production – all areas where GCC countries have made strategic investments.

The financial infrastructure to support this transition exists and continues to expand. Middle Eastern banking institutions have developed specialized trade finance mechanisms specifically designed to manage tariff-related risks. Trade finance volume in Dubai alone is projected to expand by $3.5 billion by 2026, creating the liquidity necessary to fund manufacturing relocation and export growth.

Leveraging eastward relationships

The Middle East’s geographic and diplomatic position between East and West has taken on renewed economic significance. GCC trade with China reached $286.9 billion in 2023, while India-GCC commerce grew to $111.7 billion during the 2022-2023 fiscal year.

These established relationships serve as the foundation for more sophisticated economic arrangements in the tariff-affected landscape. Chinese investments in GCC infrastructure have accelerated, particularly in industrial zones and logistics networks aligned with both China’s Belt and Road Initiative and regional development plans.

India has similarly intensified its economic engagement with the Gulf. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and the UAE has boosted non-oil trade by 14% since implementation, reaching $50.5 billion in 2023. This agreement creates mechanisms for Indian manufacturers to access U.S. markets via UAE-based value addition and re-export operations.

The Middle East has thus positioned itself as the connective tissue in a fragmented global trade system – offering both China and India partial insulation from U.S. tariff barriers while maintaining its own productive economic relationship with America.

Technology as trade facilitator

The Middle East’s response to trade disruption extends into the digital realm as well. Across the GCC, governments have been investing in advanced customs and trade facilitation technologies, with a particular focus on blockchain applications that can streamline cross-border commerce.

These digital platforms aim to reduce documentation requirements, eliminate redundant verification steps, and accelerate customs clearance processes. For businesses navigating complex tariff regulations, these technological advances offer significant advantages in maintaining supply chain efficiency.

Financial innovation complements these logistics improvements. Banking institutions across the region have developed specialized trade finance products designed to mitigate risks associated with changing tariff structures. Digital payment systems further reduce friction in cross-border transactions, allowing businesses to adapt more quickly to evolving trade conditions.

These technological capabilities strengthen the Middle East’s position as a trade intermediary during this period of global commercial realignment. Digital innovation creates an operational advantage that complements the region’s geographic and infrastructural strengths.

Choosing regional leadership

The U.S. pursuit of protectionist trade policies presents Middle Eastern economies with both immediate challenges and long-term strategic opportunities. The region appears firmly committed to the latter path.

The Middle East has assessed global trade realignments and identified strategic advantages. While other regions scramble to mitigate damage, GCC states are methodically expanding logistics capacity and developing trade corridors with emerging African markets. This calculated approach shifts our position in global commerce from reactive participants to strategic influencers – a necessary evolution given the fragmentation of traditional trade networks.

We’ve transformed our economies before, boldly shifting from petroleum dependence toward diversified, future-ready industries. This moment of global trade reconfiguration presents a similar opportunity for visionary action.

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How Ruya Is Redefining Faith-Aligned Financial Services in the UAE

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ruya

In an interview with Christoph Koster, CEO ruya we dive deep into how Ruya is blending technology, transparency, and Islamic principles to shape the future of finance in the UAE.

Could you take us through the journey of Ruya and what sets Ruya’s digital infrastructure apart from other digital or neo banks in the region?

 In 2024, ruya emerges as the UAE’s digital-first Islamic community bank, aiming to integrate modern financial technology with the principles of Islamic banking. The bank’s mission is to provide ethical, transparent, and inclusive financial services tailored to the diverse needs of its community.

A significant milestone in ruya’s journey is becoming the first Islamic bank globally to offer customers direct access to virtual asset investments, including Bitcoin, through its mobile app. This service is made possible through a strategic partnership with Fuze, a VARA-licensed leader in virtual asset service provider (VASP). Together, ruya and Fuze aim to provide a secure and ethical entry point into the digital economy for all Muslims, ensuring that the services are fully Shari’ah-compliant and aligned with the principles of Islamic finance.

Could you walk us through the customer journey—what does buying or selling crypto through ruya’s app actually look like?

The customer experience is designed to be straightforward and user-friendly. Customers can log into the ruya mobile app using secure authentication methods, navigate to the ‘Investments’ section, and select ‘Virtual Assets.’ First-time users complete a streamlined onboarding process, including understanding the terms and conditions and confirming their agreement to the terms and conditions. Subsequently, customers can buy or sell approved virtual assets, such as Bitcoin, with transactions executed in real-time. Users can monitor their virtual asset holdings, view transaction history. All transactions are conducted within a closed-loop system, ensuring security and compliance with Islamic banking principles.

Unlike many crypto platforms that encourage short-term trading, ruya promotes long-term wealth building—how is this being achieved in practice?

ruya’s approach to virtual asset investment focuses on promoting long-term wealth accumulation. Each virtual asset offered is vetted and approved by the bank’s Internal Shari’ah Supervisory Committee, ensuring alignment with Islamic ethical standards. The platform discourages speculative trading by focusing on assets with long-term growth potential and provides tools to support goal-oriented investment strategies. Through community centers and customer support channels, ruya offers personalized guidance to help customers align their investments with their financial goals.

What metrics or indicators does Ruya use to evaluate financial resilience and long-term value for customers investing in virtual assets?

To assess and enhance financial resilience, ruya monitors several key indicators, including customer engagement, investment behavior patterns, portfolio performance over time, and customer feedback gathered through surveys and support interactions. These metrics help the bank continuously improve its services and support mechanisms.

Ruya emphasizes a “customer-first” approach. How are you ensuring that customers feel informed, supported, and in control of their virtual asset investments?

The bank’s customer-first philosophy is implemented through transparent communication about investment options and associated risks, educational initiatives such as webinars and tutorials, personalized support via in-app chat, call centers, and community centers, and a user-friendly app interface that allows customers to easily navigate their investment options and monitor their portfolios.

What’s next for ruya—will we see expansion into other Shari’ah-compliant asset classes such as tokenized sukuks or digital gold?

Looking ahead, ruya is committed to expanding its suite of Shari’ah-compliant investment offerings. The bank is actively working on the integration of Shari’ah-compliant stocks & ETF trading, enabling access to over 60,000 instruments both local and global as well as tokenized sukuks to provide customers with access to Islamic bonds in a digital format, enhancing liquidity and accessibility. Development is also underway to offer gold investments, allowing customers to invest in gold through the platform in a manner that aligns with Islamic financial principles. These initiatives aim to diversify investment options for customers, enabling them to build robust, ethical, and future-ready portfolios.

In summary, ruya’s journey reflects a commitment to innovation, ethical banking, and community engagement. By integrating Shari’ah-compliant virtual asset investments into its digital platform, the bank provides customers with secure, ethical, and accessible financial services. The focus on long-term wealth building, financial resilience, and customer support ensures that ruya meets the evolving needs of its clientele while adhering to Islamic banking principles.

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Al Etihad Payments Elected to PCI SSC Board of Advisors for 2025–2027 Term

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AEP

Al Etihad Payments has been elected to the 2025–2027 Board of Advisors for the Payment Card Industry Security Standards Council (PCI SSC). AEP is among the first organizations from the Middle East to be elected to this global body driven by the UAE’s growing leadership in cybersecurity and payment system resilience on the international stage.

The PCI Security Standards Council (PCI SSC) leads a global, cross-industry effort to increase payment security by providing industry-driven, flexible, and effective data security standards and programs that help businesses detect, mitigate, and prevent cyberattacks and breaches.

Hani Bani Amer, Head of Information Security at AEP, will represent AEP as one of 64 global board members. He will serve as a strategic partner to the PCI SSC, contributing industry, regional, and technical expertise to support the Council’s mission of enhancing global payment security. The PCI SSC Board of Advisors plays a vital role in guiding the Council’s priorities and standard-setting initiatives. Members provide critical insights on global payment security trends, regional regulatory landscapes, and emerging technologies.

“Being elected to the PCI SSC Board of Advisors is both an honor and a responsibility”, said Hani Bani Amer. “Through our participation, we aim to ensure that our regional unique insights and perspectives are represented in the development of global standards, ultimately benefiting stakeholders locally and internationally. I look forward to working closely with my fellow Board members to advance strong, future-ready payment security standards that address today’s challenges and tomorrow’s cybersecurity threats.”

The new Board includes representatives from 61 organizations, reflecting the PCI SSC’s commitment to global inclusion. Members come from a wide range of sectors, including issuers, acquirers, merchants, processors, service providers, and technology companies.

Nitin Bhatnagar, Regional Director India, South Asia and Middle East, PCI Security Standards Council said, “Al Etihad Payments’ participation on the new 2025-2027 board of advisors from the Middle East (UAE) region is a critical voice that will help ensure greater regional input into our payment security standards, providing even more opportunities for discussion and collaboration with some of the most innovative voices in our industry. 

This term, in acknowledgment of the payments industry‘s ever-changing needs, the Board of Advisors has been expanded to a record 64 stakeholders, providing the Council with a broader range of views. The Board of Advisors will also be responsible for voting on new standards and major revisions to existing standards prior to their release. We are thrilled to welcome Al Etihad Payments to the newly elected 2025-2027 Board of Advisors.”

AEP continues to play a key role in advancing the UAE’s digital economy through initiatives such as Aani, the real-time payments platform, and Jaywan, the domestic card scheme. AEP is building a secure, resilient, and inclusive payments ecosystem. Both platforms are designed to meet local market needs while embedding global best practices for data protection and transaction security. By joining the PCI SSC Board of Advisors, AEP strengthens its commitment to adopting and shaping industry-driven, flexible, and effective security standards that safeguard sensitive payment data across every layer of the digital payments journey from cards to real-time transfers.

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Venture Debt Finds a New Home in the Middle East: Stride Ventures Doubles Down on Saudi Arabia

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Stride Ventures

In a striking signal of the Middle East’s rapid financial maturation, Stride Ventures has announced significant expansion of its presence across the Gulf Cooperation Council- with Saudi Arabia at the epicentre of its ambitions. The move, which includes doubling its local team and opening a second regional office, is emblematic of a broader shift: the Kingdom is not just attracting capital, but fundamentally redefining the region’s approach to startup financing.

Stride Ventures’ announcement coincides with the publication of the inaugural Global Venture Debt Report 2025, produced by team Stride in partnership with global consultancy Kearney. The report paints a compelling picture: while the global venture debt market has grown at a robust 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years, the GCC—led by Saudi Arabia—has outpaced this by a factor of nearly four, clocking an extraordinary 54% CAGR. The regional venture debt market reached $500 million in 2024, up from a mere $60 million in 2020, underscoring both the scale and speed of change.

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, a sweeping reform agenda aimed at diversifying the economy away from hydrocarbons, is at the heart of this transformation. The government’s proactive stance is evident in initiatives such as the Jada Fund of Funds (with $1.07 billion in assets under management), and strategic partnerships with global asset managers including Goldman Sachs and Franklin Templeton. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi’s ADGM and Abu Dhabi’s Hub71 are providing the regulatory and infrastructural backbone for private credit and venture activity across the region.

Traditional banks in the GCC have long been risk-averse, often shying away from lending to early-stage, asset-light startups. Venture debt- a non-dilutive, flexible, and tailored to the needs of high-growth companies- has stepped into this void. The region’s fintech and e-commerce champions, such as Tabby and Tamara, have already closed venture debt deals exceeding $100 million each, providing a template for other sectors including logistics, healthtech, and climate tech.

Stride’s expansion is timed to capture this momentum. The firm has increased its GCC team by over 60% in the past year, with a stated goal of tripling its regional assets under management by 2026. Stride is targeting a half a billion dollar commitment in the region over the next three to five years, while its latest fund has already attracted strong investor interest- on track to be oversubscribed within just a few months.

Stride Ventures now boasts an active investment pipeline of up to $110 million across the region, with an average cheque size of $10 million per transaction. This robust pipeline signals both the scale of opportunity and the growing appetite among Middle Eastern founders for strategic, founder-friendly debt capital. Stride’s approach- offering sizable and flexible financing to ambitious startups- positions it as a critical enabler of the region’s next wave of unicorns.

Perhaps most telling is the influx of global talent. Senior executives from Silicon Valley, London, and Singapore are relocating to Riyadh, lured by the region’s capital abundance and policy stability. “Saudi Arabia is shaping the future of venture capital and private credit with intention and scale,” says Fariha Ansari Javed, Partner at Stride Ventures. “We are seeing a new generation of founders who understand the value of non-dilutive capital to scale responsibly and an equally ambitious set of investors in the region ready to fuel their growth”

The implications are profound. The Middle East, long seen as a passive capital provider, is repositioning itself as an active hub for innovation finance. As Fariha puts it: “Saudi Arabia is moving from being a capital source to becoming a capital magnet. Stride is proud to be part of this next chapter.”

The question now is not whether venture debt will take root in the GCC, but rather how quickly it will scale- and how the region’s regulatory and institutional frameworks can keep pace with the ambitions of its entrepreneurs and financiers.

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