Financial
The Middle East’s New Role in a Post-Tariff Global Economy
As Trump’s trade barriers fragment established commerce patterns, Middle Eastern economies canposition themselves as essential connectors
By Pankajj Ghode, CEO, Elmirate

President Trump’s “America First” trade policy has redrawn the global economic map. China now faces 34% tariffs, India contends with 26%, and European allies must navigate 20% levies on their U.S. exports. Global businesses are rapidly adjusting to this new reality, rethinking where they manufacture, how they ship, and which markets deserve priority.
The Middle East stands at the center of this shifting landscape. The immediate economic impact of Trump’s tariffs on Middle Eastern economies is significant. The region exported over $76.24 billion in goods to the U.S. in 2023, with key sectors including mineral fuels, metals, and industrial equipment now facing varying degrees of tariff pressure.
Yet beneath these headline figures lies a more complex reality. The UAE has maintained robust trade with the U.S., with bilateral flows reaching approximately $27 billion in 2024. This relationship has created a $19.5 billion U.S. trade surplus – a fact that may shield the UAE from the most punitive aspects of the new tariff regime.
The real opportunity, however, lies in how Middle Eastern economies position themselves within the disrupted global trade architecture. As manufacturers from China and India search for alternative production bases and export routes, GCC countries offer strategic advantages that few other regions can match.
Evidence of this shift already appears in economic data. Foreign company registrations in UAE free zones rose 22% in 2024 as businesses seek tariff-neutral operations. Manufacturing foreign direct investment across the GCC is growing at 18% annually, outpacing global averages and reflecting the region’s newfound appeal as a production base.
Capturing production shifts
The Middle East’s strategic response to global tariff tensions extends beyond passive accommodation to active industrial development. Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port, which handled over 21.7 million TEUs of cargo in 2023, forms the centerpiece of a logistics network specifically designed to facilitate value-added re-exports. These facilities allow goods from tariff-affected nations to undergo sufficient transformation to qualify as GCC-origin products, essentially creating a sophisticated tariff arbitrage mechanism that benefits local economies.
This capacity comes at a critical moment. World Bank economic projections suggest Middle Eastern countries could capture up to 7% of China’s manufacturing output seeking new homes – representing a potential $31 billion economic boost by 2026. The sectors most likely to relocate include electronics assembly, automotive components, and pharmaceutical production – all areas where GCC countries have made strategic investments.
The financial infrastructure to support this transition exists and continues to expand. Middle Eastern banking institutions have developed specialized trade finance mechanisms specifically designed to manage tariff-related risks. Trade finance volume in Dubai alone is projected to expand by $3.5 billion by 2026, creating the liquidity necessary to fund manufacturing relocation and export growth.
Leveraging eastward relationships
The Middle East’s geographic and diplomatic position between East and West has taken on renewed economic significance. GCC trade with China reached $286.9 billion in 2023, while India-GCC commerce grew to $111.7 billion during the 2022-2023 fiscal year.
These established relationships serve as the foundation for more sophisticated economic arrangements in the tariff-affected landscape. Chinese investments in GCC infrastructure have accelerated, particularly in industrial zones and logistics networks aligned with both China’s Belt and Road Initiative and regional development plans.
India has similarly intensified its economic engagement with the Gulf. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and the UAE has boosted non-oil trade by 14% since implementation, reaching $50.5 billion in 2023. This agreement creates mechanisms for Indian manufacturers to access U.S. markets via UAE-based value addition and re-export operations.
The Middle East has thus positioned itself as the connective tissue in a fragmented global trade system – offering both China and India partial insulation from U.S. tariff barriers while maintaining its own productive economic relationship with America.
Technology as trade facilitator
The Middle East’s response to trade disruption extends into the digital realm as well. Across the GCC, governments have been investing in advanced customs and trade facilitation technologies, with a particular focus on blockchain applications that can streamline cross-border commerce.
These digital platforms aim to reduce documentation requirements, eliminate redundant verification steps, and accelerate customs clearance processes. For businesses navigating complex tariff regulations, these technological advances offer significant advantages in maintaining supply chain efficiency.
Financial innovation complements these logistics improvements. Banking institutions across the region have developed specialized trade finance products designed to mitigate risks associated with changing tariff structures. Digital payment systems further reduce friction in cross-border transactions, allowing businesses to adapt more quickly to evolving trade conditions.
These technological capabilities strengthen the Middle East’s position as a trade intermediary during this period of global commercial realignment. Digital innovation creates an operational advantage that complements the region’s geographic and infrastructural strengths.
Choosing regional leadership
The U.S. pursuit of protectionist trade policies presents Middle Eastern economies with both immediate challenges and long-term strategic opportunities. The region appears firmly committed to the latter path.
The Middle East has assessed global trade realignments and identified strategic advantages. While other regions scramble to mitigate damage, GCC states are methodically expanding logistics capacity and developing trade corridors with emerging African markets. This calculated approach shifts our position in global commerce from reactive participants to strategic influencers – a necessary evolution given the fragmentation of traditional trade networks.
We’ve transformed our economies before, boldly shifting from petroleum dependence toward diversified, future-ready industries. This moment of global trade reconfiguration presents a similar opportunity for visionary action.
Financial
UAE’S R&D TAX CREDITS COULD UNLOCK SIGNIFICANT VALUE FOR CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

Construction companies across the UAE may be overlooking one of the most valuable outcomes of the country’s new R&D Tax Credit regime. Introduced under Ministerial Decision No. 24 of 2026 and effective from 1 January 2026, the framework offers credits of 15% to 50% on qualifying R&D expenditure. Yet, according to Dhruva, a Ryan Affiliate, many construction businesses have yet to identify the full extent of qualifying activity or put in place the processes required to claim these benefits.
As one of the UAE’s most economically significant sectors, construction is uniquely positioned to benefit from the regime. Innovation in this sector is continuous, spanning materials, construction methods, digital tools and safety systems but much of it has historically not been classified or documented as R&D.
“The construction sector innovates constantly, in materials, in methods, in software, in safety. The challenge is that much of this activity has never been labelled R&D, and therefore never documented as such. That is precisely where value is being left on the table. Companies that begin mapping their qualifying activities now, and build the evidence trail the regime demands, will be the ones positioned to capture this benefit when it matters most,” said Nimish Goel, Leader Middle East, Dhruva, Ryan LLC Affiliate.
To qualify under the regime, R&D activities must meet five criteria aligned with the OECD Frascati Manual: they must be novel, creative, uncertain in outcome, systematic, and transferable or reproducible. For construction businesses that approach innovation with defined objectives, structured experimentation and documented results, a wide range of activity meets this threshold.
In practice, qualifying activity in the construction sector can include the development of advanced materials such as low-carbon concrete and smart composites, experimentation with modular construction techniques and prefabrication systems, and proprietary software development for Building Information Modelling (BIM), digital twins and AI-driven project management. Sustainability innovation also qualifies, including net-zero building systems and passive cooling technologies suited to UAE conditions, as does the adoption of robotics and drone-based construction and inspection methods.
The critical distinction lies between routine construction activity and genuine R&D. Applying an established methodology to a new project does not qualify. Systematically resolving technical uncertainty through experimentation and documenting that process does.
A distinguishing feature of the UAE regime is its dual-threshold structure. Each credit tier requires businesses to meet both a minimum level of qualifying expenditure and a minimum average R&D headcount. The first AED 1 million of qualifying spend attracts a 15% credit with at least two R&D staff; spend between AED 1 million and AED 2 million qualifies for 35% with at least six staff; and spend between AED 2 million and AED 5 million attracts 50% with at least fourteen. Where headcount thresholds are not met, the applicable credit rate is reduced accordingly.
For construction companies, this makes workforce planning integral to tax strategy. Specialist roles including materials scientists, structural engineers working on novel challenges, proptech developers and robotics engineers not only drive innovation but also determine access to higher credit tiers. Staff costs additionally benefit from a 30% uplift in qualifying expenditure, further strengthening the case for building dedicated R&D capability.
“This is not just a tax incentive; it represents a structural shift in how innovation is recognised within the construction sector. Businesses that act early will not only benefit financially but also strengthen their long-term technical capabilities,” added Nimish.
The regime places significant emphasis on contemporaneous documentation and structured processes. Pre-approval from the relevant authority is mandatory, and businesses must maintain detailed technical records of R&D objectives, methodologies, experiments and outcomes for a period of seven years. For construction companies, this requires embedding R&D tracking into project workflows from the outset, rather than attempting to reconstruct evidence retrospectively.
Construction groups operating centralised engineering or shared technology platforms should also review their structures carefully. Intra-group transactions are excluded from qualifying expenditure, making it critical to ensure that R&D costs are appropriately allocated at the entity level.
“The UAE’s construction sector is building the physical infrastructure of a knowledge economy. It is fitting that those who innovate within it now have access to the same calibre of R&D incentive as their counterparts in technology or manufacturing. The question is not whether to engage, but how quickly companies can build the processes to do so effectively,” concluded Nimish.
Financial
HOW GLOBAL SECURITY AND VALUABLES LOGISTICS PROVIDERS ARE ADAPTING OPERATIONS AMID RISING GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS

Nader Antar, EVP & President – APAC, IMEA & Brink’s Global Services
Much like a stable internet connection or accessibility to clean water, when we consider global finance we tend to take continuity for granted – until it is tested. Capital moves, liquidity flows, and billions in high-value assets cross borders each day, all with an expectation of certainty. Yet courtesy of the ongoing conflicts across the region, that certainty is being challenged in real time.
The Iran war is both reshaping geopolitical dynamics and disrupting the very corridors through which global trade and financial flows depend. Volatile energy markets, heightened concerns about broader economic spillovers, and early signs of how critical trade arteries such as the Strait of Hormuz can suddenly turn stability to systemic risk have sharpened the focus on resilience across the Gulf.
Of course, even amid these heightened tensions, the region continues to project stability, with governments advancing long-term infrastructure and supply chain strategies. Saudi Arabia’s new Logistics Corridors Initiative – which among its objectives aims to establish Red Sea routes capable of bypassing Hormuz entirely – reflects a deliberate approach to ensure the movement of goods, and especially the movement of value, remains uninterrupted.
Within this environment, the transport of high-value assets – banknotes, precious metals, and other commodities – has come under increased scrutiny. These flows are deeply embedded in the functioning of financial systems, linking central banks, commercial institutions, and global markets. When disruption occurs, the consequences extend beyond delayed shipments and can impact everything from liquidity to market confidence to operational continuity.
The question then, during a period of geopolitical conflict, is not whether disruption will occur, but how quickly and smoothly systems can adapt when it does. At Brink’s, our approach to this particular challenge is anchored in three core principles: Infrastructure, diversification, and visibility.
Infrastructure is the foundation of resilience. A globally distributed network of high-security facilities across major trade hubs ensures continuity by allowing rapid shifts when disruptions occur. Whether that is in the UAE, Switzerland, Singapore, or the United States, these facilities enable valuable commodities to be securely stored, repositioned, and mobilised as conditions evolve. In an unpredictable environment, the ability to absorb shocks and shift assets quickly without compromising security or compliance is crucial.
Diversification ensures flow flexibility. Traditional logistics models, often optimised for efficiency along fixed corridors, are no longer sufficient. Today’s operating environment demands multi-route, multi-modal strategies that allow shipments to be rerouted rapidly when disruptions occur. By integrating storage and transport into a single, coordinated system, it becomes possible to maintain continuity even as specific routes or markets face constraints.
Visibility, however, is what brings resilience into focus. Real-time monitoring across operations provides the situational awareness needed to anticipate risks and respond proactively. Through centralised platforms, our teams maintain continuous oversight of shipments, facilities, and transport networks. This level of transparency goes far deeper than simply tracking assets; it is about enabling faster, more informed decision-making in moments where timing is critical.
The UAE offers a compelling example of how these principles come together in practice. As one of the most stable and strategically positioned logistics hubs in the world, the Emirates has built an ecosystem defined by advanced infrastructure, strong regulatory frameworks, and deep connectivity across global trade corridors. In many respects, operations remained business as usual throughout these past couple of months. Yet this continuity is not accidental; it is the result of deliberate investment in systems designed to withstand disruption — even when the country found itself pulled into what might yet be one of the most consequential conflicts in recent history.
Beyond transport, the scope of secure logistics continues to expand. From safeguarding high-value assets at major international exhibitions to ensuring the uninterrupted availability of cash through extensive ATM networks, resilience must be embedded across the entire financial ecosystem. In markets such as India, innovation is also reshaping how cash and digital systems interact, creating new models that enhance both security and accessibility.
None of this happens in isolation. Secure logistics operates within a broader framework that depends on close coordination with regulators, customs authorities, and law enforcement agencies. These partnerships are essential to maintaining compliant, uninterrupted cross-border flows, particularly during periods of heightened geopolitical tension.
What we are witnessing today is a broader transformation in how the logistics sector approaches risk. The emphasis is moving from efficiency to adaptability, from linear supply chains to dynamic, interconnected networks. Resilience, flexibility, and visibility are now considered non-negotiables.
Global trade will continue to evolve, shaped by shifting geopolitical dynamics and emerging economic corridors. But one constant will remain: The need for trust. It is only with this that assets will move securely, that systems will hold under pressure, and that continuity will be maintained.
In the end, the true measure of a network — be it global finance, logistics, or indeed telecommunications — is not how it performs when conditions are stable, but how effectively it responds when they are not.
Financial
ROSTRO GROUP POSITIONS THE UAE AS A STRATEGIC HUB FOR INSTITUTIONAL MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE

Exclusive interview with Michael Ayres, Group CEO & Partner at Rostro Group
What strategic factors made the UAE the next major market for Rostro?
The UAE represents a very deliberate choice for us, rather than just a natural expansion step. What sets it apart is the alignment between ambition, regulation, and execution. You have a government that is actively shaping the future of financial services, a regulatory environment that is evolving at pace, and a private sector that is willing to innovate and adopt new models. That combination is rare.
From a strategic standpoint, the UAE sits at the intersection of global capital flows. It connects East and West, and increasingly serves as a base for institutional participants looking to access both developed and emerging markets. We’re seeing a growing presence of hedge funds, family offices, and proprietary trading firms establishing themselves here, which naturally increases demand for more sophisticated infrastructure around liquidity, execution, and risk management.
For Rostro, that is exactly where we operate. We’re not just building products; we’re building infrastructure that supports how modern markets function. The UAE gives us the platform to do that at scale, while remaining close to clients who are actively shaping the next phase of the industry. It’s a market that is not only growing, but evolving, and that makes it an ideal environment for long-term investment.
How is Rostro managing liquidity sourcing in the UAE given the current market environment?
The current market environment has made one thing very clear: liquidity is no longer just about access; it’s about resilience. Periods of volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, and concentrated positioning expose the limitations of traditional liquidity models, particularly those that rely heavily on internalisation or a narrow set of counterparties.
Our approach is to move away from that dependency and towards a more diversified, structured model. We combine OTC liquidity with direct access to exchange-traded markets, allowing us to provide clients with both flexibility and transparency. This is particularly important in volatile conditions, where pricing integrity and execution certainty become critical.
We’re also seeing a clear shift in client behaviour. Institutional participants are becoming more conscious of execution quality, counterparty exposure, and the underlying mechanics of how liquidity is sourced. That is driving increased interest in exchange-traded products, as well as institutional-grade crypto liquidity, where market fragmentation has historically created inefficiencies.
By building infrastructure that brings these elements together – across OTC, exchange-traded derivatives, and digital assets – we’re able to offer a more stable and consistent execution environment. The objective is not just to perform in favourable conditions, but to remain reliable when markets are under pressure.
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