Financial
The Middle East’s New Role in a Post-Tariff Global Economy
As Trump’s trade barriers fragment established commerce patterns, Middle Eastern economies canposition themselves as essential connectors
By Pankajj Ghode, CEO, Elmirate

President Trump’s “America First” trade policy has redrawn the global economic map. China now faces 34% tariffs, India contends with 26%, and European allies must navigate 20% levies on their U.S. exports. Global businesses are rapidly adjusting to this new reality, rethinking where they manufacture, how they ship, and which markets deserve priority.
The Middle East stands at the center of this shifting landscape. The immediate economic impact of Trump’s tariffs on Middle Eastern economies is significant. The region exported over $76.24 billion in goods to the U.S. in 2023, with key sectors including mineral fuels, metals, and industrial equipment now facing varying degrees of tariff pressure.
Yet beneath these headline figures lies a more complex reality. The UAE has maintained robust trade with the U.S., with bilateral flows reaching approximately $27 billion in 2024. This relationship has created a $19.5 billion U.S. trade surplus – a fact that may shield the UAE from the most punitive aspects of the new tariff regime.
The real opportunity, however, lies in how Middle Eastern economies position themselves within the disrupted global trade architecture. As manufacturers from China and India search for alternative production bases and export routes, GCC countries offer strategic advantages that few other regions can match.
Evidence of this shift already appears in economic data. Foreign company registrations in UAE free zones rose 22% in 2024 as businesses seek tariff-neutral operations. Manufacturing foreign direct investment across the GCC is growing at 18% annually, outpacing global averages and reflecting the region’s newfound appeal as a production base.
Capturing production shifts
The Middle East’s strategic response to global tariff tensions extends beyond passive accommodation to active industrial development. Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port, which handled over 21.7 million TEUs of cargo in 2023, forms the centerpiece of a logistics network specifically designed to facilitate value-added re-exports. These facilities allow goods from tariff-affected nations to undergo sufficient transformation to qualify as GCC-origin products, essentially creating a sophisticated tariff arbitrage mechanism that benefits local economies.
This capacity comes at a critical moment. World Bank economic projections suggest Middle Eastern countries could capture up to 7% of China’s manufacturing output seeking new homes – representing a potential $31 billion economic boost by 2026. The sectors most likely to relocate include electronics assembly, automotive components, and pharmaceutical production – all areas where GCC countries have made strategic investments.
The financial infrastructure to support this transition exists and continues to expand. Middle Eastern banking institutions have developed specialized trade finance mechanisms specifically designed to manage tariff-related risks. Trade finance volume in Dubai alone is projected to expand by $3.5 billion by 2026, creating the liquidity necessary to fund manufacturing relocation and export growth.
Leveraging eastward relationships
The Middle East’s geographic and diplomatic position between East and West has taken on renewed economic significance. GCC trade with China reached $286.9 billion in 2023, while India-GCC commerce grew to $111.7 billion during the 2022-2023 fiscal year.
These established relationships serve as the foundation for more sophisticated economic arrangements in the tariff-affected landscape. Chinese investments in GCC infrastructure have accelerated, particularly in industrial zones and logistics networks aligned with both China’s Belt and Road Initiative and regional development plans.
India has similarly intensified its economic engagement with the Gulf. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and the UAE has boosted non-oil trade by 14% since implementation, reaching $50.5 billion in 2023. This agreement creates mechanisms for Indian manufacturers to access U.S. markets via UAE-based value addition and re-export operations.
The Middle East has thus positioned itself as the connective tissue in a fragmented global trade system – offering both China and India partial insulation from U.S. tariff barriers while maintaining its own productive economic relationship with America.
Technology as trade facilitator
The Middle East’s response to trade disruption extends into the digital realm as well. Across the GCC, governments have been investing in advanced customs and trade facilitation technologies, with a particular focus on blockchain applications that can streamline cross-border commerce.
These digital platforms aim to reduce documentation requirements, eliminate redundant verification steps, and accelerate customs clearance processes. For businesses navigating complex tariff regulations, these technological advances offer significant advantages in maintaining supply chain efficiency.
Financial innovation complements these logistics improvements. Banking institutions across the region have developed specialized trade finance products designed to mitigate risks associated with changing tariff structures. Digital payment systems further reduce friction in cross-border transactions, allowing businesses to adapt more quickly to evolving trade conditions.
These technological capabilities strengthen the Middle East’s position as a trade intermediary during this period of global commercial realignment. Digital innovation creates an operational advantage that complements the region’s geographic and infrastructural strengths.
Choosing regional leadership
The U.S. pursuit of protectionist trade policies presents Middle Eastern economies with both immediate challenges and long-term strategic opportunities. The region appears firmly committed to the latter path.
The Middle East has assessed global trade realignments and identified strategic advantages. While other regions scramble to mitigate damage, GCC states are methodically expanding logistics capacity and developing trade corridors with emerging African markets. This calculated approach shifts our position in global commerce from reactive participants to strategic influencers – a necessary evolution given the fragmentation of traditional trade networks.
We’ve transformed our economies before, boldly shifting from petroleum dependence toward diversified, future-ready industries. This moment of global trade reconfiguration presents a similar opportunity for visionary action.
Financial
QASHIO AND NEXA AI LAB LAUNCH PARTNERSHIP TO AUTOMATE FINANCE WORKFLOWS IN THE UAE
Qashio, the UAE’s leading spend management platform, has partnered with NEXA AI Lab, the AI division of NEXA, one of MENA’s leading digital growth agencies, to help accelerate AI adoption across finance teams in the UAE through automation and AI-powered financial workflows.
As part of the partnership, Qashio and NEXA AI Lab will work together to support businesses in adopting AI tools that improve spend visibility, streamline manual processes, and make finance operations more efficient. The partnership will also include a free AI audit to help finance teams identify where AI can deliver immediate operational value and support broader adoption across the business. Both companies say the initiative is designed to move businesses from AI awareness to implementation, in line with the UAE’s national AI strategy targeting full public sector AI integration by 2031.
Amit Vyas, CEO of NEXA, comments: “AI delivers value when it is embedded directly into day-to-day workflows, rather than treated as a standalone concept. Finance is one of the clearest areas where this shift is already taking place, with businesses under increasing pressure to improve real-time decision-making. Through our partnership with Qashio, our goal is to help organisations identify where AI can be applied in practical, high-impact ways across financial operations.”
Armin Moradi, CEO of Qashio, said: “A global industry survey shows that 81% of financial institutions expect AI to be embedded in their core operations by 2030, and the UAE is one of the fastest-growing AI markets globally, setting a new baseline for competitiveness across the private sector. Our partnership with NEXA AI Lab is built to help close the gap between AI adoption plans and real execution, enabling enterprises and SMEs in the UAE to compete with the best in the world.”
Qashio has already integrated AI into its own financial workflows through features such as AI-powered receipt capture, which automatically extracts key information, including TRN, vendor names, and transaction data. The technology helps finance teams reduce manual data entry, save more than 4 hours each week, and maintain cleaner, more reliable financial records.
NEXA brings deep expertise in digital transformation and AI implementation across industries. Together, the two companies are focused on making AI accessible and measurable for businesses in the UAE. Both companies are already using tools like ConvoAI to improve access to data and provide instant support outside of working hours. Qashio is already leveraging NEXA AI Lab’s product offering. This reflects a broader shift towards always-on, AI-enabled operations.
Financial
Standard Chartered Supports Pakistan’s First Panda Bond Issuance in Chinese Interbank Market
Pakistan has successfully completed its inaugural Panda bond issuance in China’s interbank bond market, raising RMB 1.75 billion through a three-year transaction that marks the country’s first direct entry into China’s capital markets.
Standard Chartered (China) Ltd. Co acted as the only foreign bank serving as joint lead underwriter and joint book runner for the transaction, supporting Pakistan in broadening its international financing channels while strengthening financial connectivity between regional capital markets.
The issuance received strong support from multilateral development institutions, including the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which together guaranteed 95 per cent of the bond’s principal and interest payments. The structure helped attract significant demand from Chinese banks, securities houses, and international financial institutions.
The transaction was reportedly more than five times oversubscribed, allowing Pakistan to price the bond at 2.50 per cent, the tightest end of the indicated pricing range.
Salman Ansari, Global Head, Capital Markets, Standard Chartered, described the issuance as a strategically important transaction that expands Pakistan’s access to global liquidity pools while demonstrating the growing relevance of regional capital markets within the international funding landscape.
The transaction also reflects the broader evolution of the Renminbi within global financial markets, as China continues expanding the role of its currency beyond trade settlement into cross-border financing and sovereign funding structures.
Jerry Zhang, Global Head of Banks & Broker Dealers and Head of Coverage, Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered, said the transaction highlighted the bank’s role in connecting international issuers with China’s domestic capital markets while also reflecting the continued internationalisation of the Renminbi.
The Panda bond market has increasingly attracted a wider range of sovereign, supranational, and institutional issuers in recent years as regional economies explore diversified funding channels and deeper access to Chinese liquidity pools.
Financial
WHY GLOBALLY CONNECTED FAMILIES MUST PLAN FOR GEOPOLITICAL CHANGE
By Nazneen Abbas, Founder, Ma’an
Families with wealth across borders are already used to complexity. They live with different legal systems, different inheritance regimes, and different tax realities, often all at once. That part is not new. What has changed is the speed at which the environment around those structures is moving. The geopolitical backdrop is no longer something families can treat as distant noise. It is beginning to alter the conditions in which wealth is held, transferred, and protected.
That is becoming visible in the questions families are now asking. Across the GCC, many who already have Wills, trusts, foundations, and succession structures in place are no longer asking whether they have planned. They are asking whether what they put in place still holds. The conversation is shifting away from documents and toward durability, resilience, and relevance over time.
The issue is not complexity, it is movement
Cross-border planning has always required care. What feels different now is the sense that the regulatory environment may be entering a period of faster movement. Tax agreements that were once taken as given could come under review. Reporting standards may tighten further. Frameworks in some jurisdictions may no longer offer the same level of certainty that families have relied on.
That does not automatically make an existing plan ineffective. It does mean the assumptions on which it was built may no longer be fully reliable. A structure that made sense five or seven years ago may still be valid on paper, but it may now interact differently with another jurisdiction’s rules. That difference is where risk begins to accumulate.
Many families are not dealing with poor planning. They are dealing with planning built for a slower-moving environment. A framework can be professionally drafted and entirely appropriate for its time, yet still require review because the conditions around it have changed. The gap, in many cases, is one of timing rather than quality.
Families do not experience risk as corporations do
Public discussion around geopolitical risk is usually framed in corporate language – market access, supply chains, revenue exposure. But geopolitical literacy is no longer just a corporate issue.
The same forces that alter corporate decision-making also alter the legal and tax environment in which private wealth sits. The difference is that families encounter those forces at far more personal moments. A business responds through compliance and restructuring. A family may discover, during a bereavement or a generational transition, that a structure meant to preserve stability is now sitting between conflicting legal systems or newly expanded obligations. The cost of outdated planning is rarely just technical. It is emotional, and it often surfaces when a family is least equipped to navigate it.
What a meaningful review actually covers
Families and family offices in the GCC with assets or obligations across multiple jurisdictions need to review their planning as a connected system. The question is not whether the Will is signed or the foundation properly established. It is whether those elements continue to work together under current conditions.
Do existing Wills still align with the succession laws of each jurisdiction involved? Do trust or foundation structures still operate as intended alongside local inheritance frameworks, reporting obligations, and tax treatment? The review also needs to reach instruments often created with care and then left untouched. Private Placement Life Insurance (PPLI), for example, may still be appropriate, but its treatment can vary depending on where the family is resident, where beneficiaries sit, and how international agreements evolve. Dynasty Trusts and Irrevocable Life Insurance Trusts (ILITs), especially when governed by US law, deserve renewed scrutiny where family circumstances or legal interpretation have materially changed.
This is not about alarm. It is about alignment. Cross-border structures fail less often because a single instrument is flawed, and more often because the instruments stop speaking to one another.
The plan may hold. Does it still fit?
A plan can remain legally intact and still fall behind. Families change. Children grow up. New dependents enter the picture. Businesses expand into new jurisdictions. Property is acquired in places never part of the original conversation.
If a structure no longer reflects the family’s wishes, responsibilities, or values, it is no longer doing its full job. The real test is not whether it remains untouched, but whether it continues to reflect the life it is meant to support. That matters especially in this region, where families operate across borders almost by default.
The strongest plans are not always the most elaborate. They are the ones revisited honestly and adjusted before pressure forces the issue. Families often treat estate planning as something to complete and put away, which is understandable.
Cross-border wealth planning across jurisdictions cannot remain static. It requires ongoing stewardship. Families that pause to review their structures now are doing what good planning has always required: ensuring the framework continues to reflect not just the world it operates in, but the family it is there to serve.
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