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The Middle East’s New Role in a Post-Tariff Global Economy

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As Trump’s trade barriers fragment established commerce patterns, Middle Eastern economies canposition themselves as essential connectors

By Pankajj Ghode, CEO, Elmirate

President Trump’s “America First” trade policy has redrawn the global economic map. China now faces 34% tariffs, India contends with 26%, and European allies must navigate 20% levies on their U.S. exports. Global businesses are rapidly adjusting to this new reality, rethinking where they manufacture, how they ship, and which markets deserve priority.

The Middle East stands at the center of this shifting landscape. The immediate economic impact of Trump’s tariffs on Middle Eastern economies is significant. The region exported over $76.24 billion in goods to the U.S. in 2023, with key sectors including mineral fuels, metals, and industrial equipment now facing varying degrees of tariff pressure.

Yet beneath these headline figures lies a more complex reality. The UAE has maintained robust trade with the U.S., with bilateral flows reaching approximately $27 billion in 2024. This relationship has created a $19.5 billion U.S. trade surplus – a fact that may shield the UAE from the most punitive aspects of the new tariff regime.

The real opportunity, however, lies in how Middle Eastern economies position themselves within the disrupted global trade architecture. As manufacturers from China and India search for alternative production bases and export routes, GCC countries offer strategic advantages that few other regions can match.

Evidence of this shift already appears in economic data. Foreign company registrations in UAE free zones rose 22% in 2024 as businesses seek tariff-neutral operations. Manufacturing foreign direct investment across the GCC is growing at 18% annually, outpacing global averages and reflecting the region’s newfound appeal as a production base.

Capturing production shifts

The Middle East’s strategic response to global tariff tensions extends beyond passive accommodation to active industrial development. Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port, which handled over 21.7 million TEUs of cargo in 2023, forms the centerpiece of a logistics network specifically designed to facilitate value-added re-exports. These facilities allow goods from tariff-affected nations to undergo sufficient transformation to qualify as GCC-origin products, essentially creating a sophisticated tariff arbitrage mechanism that benefits local economies.

This capacity comes at a critical moment. World Bank economic projections suggest Middle Eastern countries could capture up to 7% of China’s manufacturing output seeking new homes – representing a potential $31 billion economic boost by 2026. The sectors most likely to relocate include electronics assembly, automotive components, and pharmaceutical production – all areas where GCC countries have made strategic investments.

The financial infrastructure to support this transition exists and continues to expand. Middle Eastern banking institutions have developed specialized trade finance mechanisms specifically designed to manage tariff-related risks. Trade finance volume in Dubai alone is projected to expand by $3.5 billion by 2026, creating the liquidity necessary to fund manufacturing relocation and export growth.

Leveraging eastward relationships

The Middle East’s geographic and diplomatic position between East and West has taken on renewed economic significance. GCC trade with China reached $286.9 billion in 2023, while India-GCC commerce grew to $111.7 billion during the 2022-2023 fiscal year.

These established relationships serve as the foundation for more sophisticated economic arrangements in the tariff-affected landscape. Chinese investments in GCC infrastructure have accelerated, particularly in industrial zones and logistics networks aligned with both China’s Belt and Road Initiative and regional development plans.

India has similarly intensified its economic engagement with the Gulf. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and the UAE has boosted non-oil trade by 14% since implementation, reaching $50.5 billion in 2023. This agreement creates mechanisms for Indian manufacturers to access U.S. markets via UAE-based value addition and re-export operations.

The Middle East has thus positioned itself as the connective tissue in a fragmented global trade system – offering both China and India partial insulation from U.S. tariff barriers while maintaining its own productive economic relationship with America.

Technology as trade facilitator

The Middle East’s response to trade disruption extends into the digital realm as well. Across the GCC, governments have been investing in advanced customs and trade facilitation technologies, with a particular focus on blockchain applications that can streamline cross-border commerce.

These digital platforms aim to reduce documentation requirements, eliminate redundant verification steps, and accelerate customs clearance processes. For businesses navigating complex tariff regulations, these technological advances offer significant advantages in maintaining supply chain efficiency.

Financial innovation complements these logistics improvements. Banking institutions across the region have developed specialized trade finance products designed to mitigate risks associated with changing tariff structures. Digital payment systems further reduce friction in cross-border transactions, allowing businesses to adapt more quickly to evolving trade conditions.

These technological capabilities strengthen the Middle East’s position as a trade intermediary during this period of global commercial realignment. Digital innovation creates an operational advantage that complements the region’s geographic and infrastructural strengths.

Choosing regional leadership

The U.S. pursuit of protectionist trade policies presents Middle Eastern economies with both immediate challenges and long-term strategic opportunities. The region appears firmly committed to the latter path.

The Middle East has assessed global trade realignments and identified strategic advantages. While other regions scramble to mitigate damage, GCC states are methodically expanding logistics capacity and developing trade corridors with emerging African markets. This calculated approach shifts our position in global commerce from reactive participants to strategic influencers – a necessary evolution given the fragmentation of traditional trade networks.

We’ve transformed our economies before, boldly shifting from petroleum dependence toward diversified, future-ready industries. This moment of global trade reconfiguration presents a similar opportunity for visionary action.

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WHY THE MIDDLE EAST’S DIGITAL IDENTITY INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS A DEEPER TRUST LAYER

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Stefan Deiss, CEO and Co-Founder, The Hashgraph Group

The Middle East has moved faster on digital identity than almost any other region in the world. The UAE Pass now connects residents to more than 5,000 government and private services. Saudi Arabia’s Absher platform has issued over 28 million unified digital IDs. Dubai has gone fully paperless across 45 government entities.

But these systems were built for a world where the main challenge was convenience: getting citizens online, reducing paperwork, speeding up access to services. The threats they were designed to handle were stolen passwords, forged documents and basic impersonation.

What they were not built for is an environment where artificial intelligence can generate a convincing human face in seconds, clone a voice from a few minutes of audio, and inject a synthetic video feed into a verification check in real time.

What distributed ledger technology actually adds

Most digital identity systems today are centralised. Your credentials sit in a government or enterprise database, and every time your identity needs to be checked, the system queries that database. Sometimes that means scanning your face against a stored biometric template. Sometimes it means pulling up your document records and cross-referencing them. Either way, the process depends on one central store of information being secure, accurate and available.

The model works until it doesn’t. A single database holding millions of identities is a high-value target. An attacker who gets in does not compromise one person. They compromise everyone. And the tools available to attackers are improving fast.

The GCC fraud detection market has reached $1.2 billion. Deepfake attacks on identity systems are surging globally. In May, the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority published updated deepfake guidelines that explicitly recommend blockchain-based provenance systems to establish traceable records of original content. The guidelines identify identity impersonation through cloned voices and facial simulations as a major risk, and single out finance, politics and identity verification as sectors requiring priority monitoring.

This is the context in which distributed ledger technology becomes relevant. Decentralised identity flips the conventional model. Instead of credentials sitting in someone else’s database, you hold them yourself, in a digital wallet on your device. When you need to prove something, you present only the specific credential required. The verification is recorded on a distributed ledger, a shared record maintained across a network of independent computers rather than controlled by any single organisation. Nobody owns it, can alter it, and shut it down.

Then there are zero-knowledge proofs. This is a way of proving something is true without revealing the underlying information. You could prove you are over 18 without showing your date of birth. You could prove you hold a valid professional licence without disclosing your name or address. The verifier gets the confirmation they need. You keep everything else private.

There is no single database to breach. The individual controls what information is shared and with whom. And every verification event is recorded permanently, creating an audit trail that regulators, enterprises and individuals can each trust independently.

In Sharjah, decentralised identity infrastructure has been integrated across a smart city ecosystem, making it one of the first urban environments in the world where residents, buildings and services interact through digital credentials rather than centralised databases.

The physical presence problem

There is a further gap that even well-designed digital identity systems do not currently address: physical presence.

Identity verification today confirms who someone claims to be remotely. It checks documents, runs facial recognition, performs biometric matching. What it cannot confirm is that a real human being is actually sitting in front of the screen. A synthetic face, a cloned voice and an injected video feed can sail through remote checks that were designed for an era when faking a human was genuinely difficult. That era is over.

The technology to close this gap exists. Ultra-wideband radar, the same short-range spatial sensing found in consumer devices, can detect physical presence with sub-10-centimetre accuracy. It can pick up vital signs such as breathing and heartbeat as a liveness check. When that presence event is cryptographically bound to a decentralised identity credential and recorded on a distributed ledger, the result is a tamperproof record proving a specific individual was physically present at a given location at a given time, verifiable by any authorised party without exposing personal data.

The applications stretch across sectors. In transport, a traveller approaching a gate at an airport or train station could be verified instantly: identity confirmed, physical presence proven, the event recorded permanently. The same logic applies to stadiums, conferences, concert venues and any gated environment where ticket fraud is a problem.

Why the Middle East is the right place for this conversation

The UAE government has announced its intention to transition 50 per cent of federal sectors and services to agentic AI within two years. When AI agents begin autonomously processing licences, permits, compliance checks and cross-border transactions, the question of who authorised what, and whether a human was genuinely involved at the point of decision, becomes critical. Without a verifiable link between a physical person and a digital action, agentic AI systems become vulnerable to impersonation at a scale that manual fraud teams cannot monitor.

The region also has structural advantages that most other markets do not. Governments in the Gulf are bringing policy, investment and technology deployment together under unified national strategies. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, the UAE’s digital economy strategy targeting 20 per cent of non-oil GDP by 2030, and the broader push toward smart city infrastructure all create an environment where new identity infrastructure can move from concept to deployment far faster than in markets weighed down by legacy systems and fragmented regulation.

What comes next

The digital identity systems the Middle East has built over the past decade are genuine achievements. But they were designed for a world where the person on the other end of a verification check was assumed to be real. That assumption is becoming less reliable every quarter.

The next generation of identity infrastructure needs to do three things. It needs to remove single points of compromise by decentralising how credentials are stored and verified. It needs to give individuals control over their own data through zero-knowledge proofs and selective disclosure. And it needs to prove physical presence at the moment of verification, closing the gap that synthetic media is already exploiting.

About the Author:
Stefan Deiss is Co-Founder and CEO of The Hashgraph Group (THG), a Swiss-based Web3 and AI technology engineering company specialising in enterprise solutions built on the Hedera network.

Stefan brings over two decades of experience in technology and business transformation. He spent 11 years at Orange Business Services before moving to Zurich Insurance Group, and went on to found his own consulting firm in 2013. In 2016, he co-founded The Hashgraph Group, which today operates globally with offices across Switzerland, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong, and beyond.

Under his leadership, THG has developed a suite of enterprise products including TrackTrace for EU Digital Product Passport compliance, IDTrust for decentralised digital identity, and EcoGuard for sustainability and carbon markets. He is also co-inventor of CITI (Continuous Identity Trust Infrastructure), a patent-pending cryptographic framework that binds physical presence to digital identity.

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QASHIO BRINGS CUSTOMERS EXCLUSIVE ACCESS TO THE FIFA WORLD CUP 2026™ FAN ZONE EXPERIENCE

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Qashio, the MENA region’s leading spend management solution, is rewarding its UAE customers with exclusive FIFA World Cup 2026™ fan experiences, including premium viewing access, interactive competitions, and hospitality benefits at Emirates Golf Club’s Footy Central in Dubai. The initiative gives customers the opportunity to experience a dedicated football watch party destination during the world’s biggest football tournament.

Running from 11 June to 19 July 2026, Footy Central will screen live matches alongside themed F&B, interactive games, family-friendly activities, competitions, and matchday entertainment. The programme builds on the global appeal of football’s premier event, which reached more than five billion viewers across all platforms during its previous edition, and reflects Qashio’s value proposition beyond spend management by turning client loyalty into tangible rewards and premium benefits.

The campaign will unlock exclusive access to selected matchday rewards and fan activations for Qashio customers, including F&B vouchers, matchday credits, Viya Points, gaming rewards, and VIP hospitality experiences. Viya Points, the digital reward currency within the Viya App ecosystem, can be redeemed across a premium lifestyle network of 400 venues, extending the value of the campaign beyond the matchday.

Guests can participate in the Ronaldo Header Challenge, where they can test their heading accuracy, while the FIFA Console Zone will host the PS5 FIFA Esports Challenge: Road to the Cup, with guests competing in head-to-head matches for leaderboard positions and daily rewards. Half-time engagement will include lucky draws during key matches, alongside Predict & Win competitions that reward guests for accurate match predictions.

Armin Moradi, CEO and Founder of Qashio, said: “Football is the most popular sport in the UAE among both Emiratis and the broader expat population, which makes the FIFA World Cup 2026™ a powerful moment to celebrate with our customers. Qashio was built to help businesses manage spend with more control and value, and this campaign extends that promise by turning loyalty into memorable experiences for finance leaders and teams across the country.”*

The FIFA World Cup 2026™ customer rewards campaign reflects Qashio’s broader approach to building a spend management platform that combines financial control with meaningful customer engagement. Through rewards, activations, competitions, and hospitality benefits, Qashio is continuing to create value for businesses beyond transactions, while giving customers new ways to engage with one of the most anticipated sporting events in the world.

For more information on the Footy Central experience and partnership opportunities, visit the link.

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How Geopolitical and Economic Disruption Are Reshaping the CRO Role in GCC Banking

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As geopolitical uncertainty, tighter liquidity and digital disruption converge, the CRO role is evolving from compliance gatekeeper to strategic business leader.


For much of the past decade, GCC banks operated in an environment defined by strong liquidity, rapid credit expansion and relatively stable macroeconomic conditions. Supported by high oil revenues and ambitious national growth agendas, the region’s banking sector became synonymous with resilience, scale and sustained growth.


That resilience has been tested in recent months and, so far, the sector has responded well. Recent banking data published by the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) and the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) suggests that customer deposits have continued to grow despite heightened regional uncertainty.

Aurelien Vincent, Senior Manager Director, Head of Financial Services Middle East, Strategy & Transformation, FTI Consulting

Customer deposits increased by 17% year-on-year as of April 2026, and 2% from February to April 2026 in the UAE, while in Saudi Arabia, the growth in deposits was 11% year-on-year as of April 2026 and 2% from February to April 2026 , reinforcing both markets’ positions as regional safe havens for capital. Growth in monetary aggregates and non-resident deposits further suggests that regional and international investors continue to view GCC banking systems as stable, well-capitalized and resilient.


Importantly, there is little evidence so far of the capital flight or systemic liquidity pressures that some observers initially feared. Instead, the data suggests that the UAE and Saudi Arabia continue to play an important role as regional safe havens for capital, supported by strong banking fundamentals, prudent regulation and proactive central bank intervention.


Central banks have also played an important role. Proactive interventions helped preserve liquidity, support credit expansion and provide targeted relief to sectors facing short-term disruption. In the UAE, banks were able to extend working capital facilities and restructure short-term obligations for fundamentally healthy businesses, helping bridge temporary cash-flow pressures while maintaining confidence across the financial system.


As a result, resilience is no longer simply a measure of capital strength. It has become a strategic capability that underpins the sector’s ability to navigate an increasingly complex operating environment.

Julien Wallen, Senior Manager Director, Head of Financial Services Corporate Finance EMEA, FTI Consulting


However, what is clearer than ever before is that the operating environment around banks is changing rapidly—and as a result, so is the role of the CRO.


The recent regional conflict accelerated that realization. Traditional stress-testing models were largely designed around financial shocks such as market volatility, liquidity tightening, and credit deterioration. What many institutions are now confronting is a far broader challenge, where geopolitical tensions, cyber threats, operational resilience, and credit risk can all influence one another simultaneously.
Across the GCC, this has prompted some banks to reassess whether existing business continuity and resilience frameworks are sufficiently equipped for a far more interconnected risk landscape.


This is particularly relevant in a region where regulatory frameworks have prioritized sovereignty, local data residency, and operational control. Recent events have also created an opportunity for institutions to reassess how these strengths can be balanced with greater operational flexibility and diversification, e.g., for digital data storage.


At the same time, a second structural shift is unfolding more quietly beneath the surface.


According to analysis from FTI Consulting, GCC banks originated close to $1 trillion in new lending between 2020 and 2025 across Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. Much of this growth took place during a prolonged low-interest rate environment and elevated liquidity conditions, meaning many portfolios, particularly across real estate and mortgage lending, have not yet been tested through a full economic stress cycle.


That could create a more complex operating backdrop for the years ahead.
For banks, the longer-term risk is not simply operational disruption. While business continuity and cybersecurity remain critical priorities, credit risk remains equally important. If short-term disruption were to evolve into a prolonged economic slowdown, pressure could emerge across borrower segments and asset classes, particularly in sectors that have benefited from strong credit expansion in recent years. In certain scenarios, a meaningful correction in real estate markets would have implications not only for borrowers but also for portfolio performance and risk provisioning across the banking sector.


This is precisely the type of forward-looking scenario that CROs must now anticipate, rather than simply respond to.


Modern CROs are increasingly expected to balance resilience, growth, operational continuity and profitability simultaneously, while helping institutions navigate a far more dynamic and interconnected operating environment. More importantly, the CRO can no longer afford to be purely backward-looking.


The institutions likely to outperform over the next decade will be those capable of identifying disruption early, adapting faster and embedding risk intelligence directly into strategic decision-making.


That requires a fundamentally different approach to risk management. One built around predictive intelligence, integrated scenario planning, dynamic stress testing and real-time decision-making.


Artificial intelligence and advanced analytics are becoming increasingly important in that transition.


Some leading regional banks are already investing in AI-enabled underwriting, early-warning systems and advanced collections capabilities that allow them to identify stress signals earlier and make more sophisticated portfolio decisions in real time. Others, however, continue to rely on fragmented legacy systems, manual workflows and reactive operating models.


That gap may become increasingly important during periods of disruption. Institutions that can identify emerging stress earlier, underwrite more effectively and anticipate portfolio deterioration before competitors will inevitably benefit from lower risk costs and stronger resilience outcomes.


Because in this new environment, resilience itself is becoming a competitive advantage.


The banks most likely to succeed will not necessarily be the largest or most conservative institutions. They will be the organizations capable of integrating risk more directly into strategic decision-making, modernizing operational infrastructure and responding dynamically to an increasingly volatile external environment.


The broader lesson for the sector is clear.


The GCC banking industry is entering a new era where resilience can no longer be measured purely through capital strength or regulatory compliance. Increasingly, resilience will be defined by adaptability and the ability to proactively anticipate interconnected geopolitical, operational, technological and economic disruption in real time.


And that shift is fundamentally redefining the CRO mandate across the region.
The institutions that recognize this early and empower their risk functions accordingly will likely be best positioned for the next phase of growth across GCC banking.

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