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Navigating Growth and Liquidity: The Shift to Predictive Credit Intelligence in the GCC

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As GCC businesses expand into new markets and increasingly complex supply chains, traditional credit assessment is giving way to a more predictive approach. In this interview with Mohamad Jomaa, CEO and Country Manager for GCC and Egypt at Coface, we explore how real-time data, AI and early-warning intelligence are helping CFOs anticipate payment risk, protect working capital and make more confident decisions across customers, suppliers and markets.

What is driving the shift from relationship-based credit decisions to predictive credit intelligence among CFOs in the GCC?

Relationships remain fundamental to business in the GCC and will continue to be. What has changed is the speed at which companies are expanding into new sectors, markets, and supply chains. As organizations grow beyond their traditional networks, finance leaders need additional tools to assess customers, suppliers, and partners they may not know well.

Today’s CFOs are increasingly complementing business relationships with data-driven insights. They need greater visibility not only into credit risk, but also into supply chain dependencies, corporate ownership structures, payment behavior, and potential vulnerabilities across their ecosystem.

Predictive intelligence provides that forward-looking perspective. It helps businesses make faster and more informed decisions, strengthen due diligence processes, identify opportunities, and anticipate risks before they impact cash flow, operations, or growth plans.

What trends are you currently seeing in payment delays and corporate defaults across the UAE and Saudi Arabia?

The overall economic outlook in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia remains positive, supported by ambitious investment programs and continued economic diversification. At the same time, businesses continue to face uneven market conditions across sectors.

Drawing on Coface’s unique experience as a global trade credit insurer, we monitor payment behavior, claims activity, and credit events across millions of companies worldwide. What we are seeing today is not necessarily a significant increase in corporate failures, but rather signs of pressure on working capital in specific industries.

Payment delays have become more common in sectors exposed to longer project cycles, margin pressure, or supply chain disruptions. For finance leaders, the challenge is distinguishing between temporary liquidity constraints and deteriorating credit quality. This is where access to real-time payment data and early warning indicators becomes particularly valuable.

How can better credit intelligence improve cash flow, working capital, and overall financial resilience?

Better intelligence enables businesses to make more informed decisions across the entire customer and supplier lifecycle. By combining financial information, payment behavior, sector analysis, ownership data, Country Risk Assessments, Sector Risk Assessments, and ongoing monitoring, organizations gain a much clearer view of both risk and opportunity.

This has a direct impact on cash flow and working capital. Businesses can identify signs of financial stress earlier, reduce exposure to overdue accounts, prioritize collections efforts, and allocate credit more effectively. Access to real-time information and early warning indicators allows companies to act before issues translate into cash flow challenges.

Increasingly, however, financial resilience is not only about customer risk. It is also about understanding vulnerabilities across the supply chain. A disruption involving a key supplier, contractor, or logistics partner can have a significant impact on operations, costs, and liquidity. Better intelligence provides greater visibility into these critical dependencies, helping organizations identify concentration risks, assess the financial health of strategic partners, and strengthen business continuity planning.

As companies expand into new markets and engage with new customers, suppliers, and partners, they need confidence in who they are doing business with. Access to reliable data on ownership structures, financial health, payment behavior, sector outlooks, and country risk helps organizations make better-informed decisions and reduce uncertainty when entering new commercial relationships.

. What warning signs should finance leaders monitor before extending credit to new customers or entering unfamiliar markets?

Financial statements remain important, but they only tell part of the story. Finance leaders should also evaluate payment behavior, ownership structures, management stability, sector outlooks, supplier concentration, and exposure to geopolitical or regulatory risks.

One of the most valuable early warning indicators is a deterioration in payment behavior. In many cases, companies begin showing signs of financial stress long before it becomes visible in published financial statements.

Similarly, supply chain concentration risks should not be overlooked. A business may appear financially sound while remaining highly dependent on a small number of customers, suppliers, or projects. Understanding these dependencies is an increasingly important component of due diligence.

Effective credit decisions require a broader assessment of the business ecosystem rather than focusing solely on traditional financial metrics.

This is why a combination of company information, payment behavior, Country Risk Assessments, Sector Risk Assessments, and supply chain intelligence is increasingly becoming an essential part of the decision-making process.

How are AI and predictive analytics changing the way organizations assess credit risk and make financing decisions?

Financial statements remain important, but they only tell part of the story. Finance leaders should also evaluate payment behavior, ownership structures, management stability, sector outlooks, supplier concentration, and exposure to geopolitical or regulatory risks.

One of the most valuable early warning indicators is a deterioration in payment behavior. In many cases, companies begin showing signs of financial stress long before it becomes visible in published financial statements.

Similarly, supply chain concentration risks should not be overlooked. A business may appear financially sound while remaining highly dependent on a small number of customers, suppliers, or projects. Understanding these dependencies is an increasingly important component of due diligence.

Effective credit decisions require a broader assessment of the business ecosystem rather than focusing solely on traditional financial metrics.

This is why a combination of company information, payment behavior, Country Risk Assessments, Sector Risk Assessments, and supply chain intelligence is increasingly becoming an essential part of the decision-making process.

What sectors in the GCC are showing the strongest opportunities, and where are the highest risks based on your data?

Our outlook combines insights from Coface’s payment experience data, claims observations, Country Risk Assessments and Sector Risk Assessments. Together, these provide a comprehensive view of the opportunities and vulnerabilities shaping the business environment across the GCC.

We continue to see attractive opportunities in sectors supported by economic diversification strategies, digital transformation, infrastructure investment, logistics development and the energy transition. These areas are benefiting from sustained investment, strong policy support and growing regional demand.

At the same time, businesses operating in sectors facing tighter margins, elevated input costs, project execution challenges or longer payment cycles require closer monitoring. What is important to remember is that risk is rarely uniform across an entire sector. Performance can vary significantly from one company to another depending on its financial strength, competitive positioning, customer base and exposure to broader supply chain dynamics.

Looking ahead, how do you see the role of predictive intelligence evolving within corporate finance over the next three to five years?

Over the next three to five years, predictive intelligence will become an integral component of decision-making across finance, procurement, sales, treasury, compliance, and risk management functions.

We expect companies to move beyond using intelligence solely for credit assessments and begin embedding it throughout the business. This includes supplier selection, customer onboarding, supply chain management, compliance checks, investment decisions, and strategic planning.

The organizations that will be most successful are those that can combine technology, data, and human expertise to obtain a holistic understanding of their business ecosystem.

In an increasingly interconnected world, success will depend not only on knowing who you do business with, but also on understanding the risks and opportunities across the entire value chain. Access to reliable, forward-looking intelligence will therefore become a key competitive advantage, helping companies grow confidently while remaining resilient in a rapidly changing environment.

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Financial

Standard Chartered becomes first Global Systemically Important Bank (G-SIB) to launch Institutional Bitcoin and Ether spot trading in the UAE

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Standard Chartered today announced the expansion of its institutional Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and Ether (ETH/USD) spot trading in the UAE through ‘Standard Chartered DIFC’[1].

This makes Standard Chartered the first Global Systemically Important Bank (G-SIB) to offer the capability in the market and the only global bank currently offering institutional digital asset spot trading in the region. The move further broadens the bank’s regulated digital asset offering in the UAE by adding execution to its custody offering.

The capability enables eligible institutional clients to access deliverable Bitcoin and Ether spot trading through Standard Chartered’s electronic trading channels. It is integrated into the Bank’s existing platforms, enabling clients to access crypto-asset trading through familiar FX interfaces.

Clients may settle trades with a custodian of their choice, including Standard Chartered’s digital asset custody solution that was launched in September 2024.

Rola Abu Manneh, Chief Executive Officer, UAE, Middle East and Pakistan at Standard Chartered, said: “The UAE has developed a clear digital assets regulatory framework that supports institutional participation and innovation. Extending our Bitcoin and Ether spot trading capability to institutional clients is a significant step in broadening our regulated digital asset proposition in the market. By combining execution with secure custody, governance and the connectivity of a global bank, we are providing clients with a more integrated way to participate in digital asset markets.”

Christopher Parsons, Senior Executive Officer, Standard Chartered DIFC, said: “DIFC provides an established platform for international financial institutions to deploy global capabilities across markets. Extending our institutional digital asset trading capability through the Centre demonstrates the strength of that model, combining Standard Chartered’s global markets expertise and network with a regulated base from which we can serve clients across the region.”

Standard Chartered first introduced institutional Bitcoin and Ether spot trading through its UK branch in July 2025, becoming the first G-SIB to offer deliverable spot crypto-asset trading to institutional clients. The UAE launch extends that established global capability into a market where the Bank has been building its institutional grade digital assets offering.

The latest UAE capability builds on Standard Chartered’s broader digital assets strategy, which spans custody, trading and tokenisation capabilities through its Corporate and Investment Bank, while its ventures ecosystem extends these capabilities through Zodia Markets and Libeara. Together, these capabilities are designed to support institutional clients’ evolving digital asset needs through regulated infrastructure and services.

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Financial

Dhruva to Rebrand as Ryan Across the Middle East, Signaling Unified Global Brand

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Dhruva will adopt the Ryan brand across the UAE and Saudi Arabia by the end of 2026, uniting the practice with Ryan’s global identity and international platform.

Dhruva, a leading tax consultancy firm in the Middle East, and Ryan, a leading global tax services and software provider, today announced that Dhruva will transition to the Ryan brand across the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The rebranding will be completed by the end of 2026, bringing the practice under Ryan’s global identity and reinforcing its position as part of the world’s leading global-scale specialist in business tax.

The transition marks the next phase of the strategic joint venture announced in 2025 and reflects the continued integration of Dhruva’s regional capabilities with Ryan’s global platform, technology, and international resources. Clients across the Middle East will continue to benefit from the same trusted advisory teams, enhanced by access to Ryan’s worldwide expertise and service capabilities.


“The Middle East has been a strategic growth market for us for many years, and we have built a strong advisory practice founded on deep client relationships, technical excellence, and local market understanding,” said Dinesh Kanabar, Founder, Chairman, and CEO, Dhruva Advisors and Vice Chairman, Ryan.

“The transition to the Ryan brand marks a significant milestone in our journey and reflects the strength of our partnership. By combining our regional expertise with Ryan’s global scale, technology, and international capabilities, we are creating an even stronger platform to support clients across the region as they navigate an increasingly dynamic and evolving tax landscape.”


“The Middle East is one of the most important growth markets for tax advisory services globally, and we are investing in the region with a long-term view,” said Tom Shave, President of Ryan’s European and Asia-Pacific Operations. “Uniting under the Ryan brand strengthens how we serve clients across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Europe—bringing seamless access to our global expertise, technology, and international resources through one trusted platform. This transition marks an important milestone in our integration and reinforces our commitment to the region’s future.”


Ryan will continue to invest in its Middle East operations, expanding its team, capabilities, and regional presence across key markets, including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh. The practice provides comprehensive tax advisory services spanning corporate tax, value-added tax (VAT) and indirect tax, transfer pricing, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) tax structuring, research and development (R&D), and cross-border compliance.


“The response from our clients over the past year has been the clearest validation of this partnership,” said Nimish Goel, Leader, Middle East, Dhruva, a Ryan Affiliate. “From the outset, our teams have been integrating Ryan’s global capabilities in technology, specialized expertise, and best practices into the work we already lead in the region. Adopting the Ryan brand is the natural next step. It is the same people and the same trusted relationships, now carrying the name of the largest Firm in the world dedicated exclusively to business taxes.”


The rebranding will be implemented in phases during the second half of 2026, with signage, visual identity, and digital properties transitioning to the Ryan brand across the region.

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Saudi Arabia’s tax amnesty is entering its final months

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What could follow the December deadline is an assessment cycle, not a filing cycle.

By Manish Bansal, Associate Partner, Dhruva Advisors, A Ryan Affiliate, Saudi Arabia

For most of the past five years, inter-alia, one of the major topics of tax conversation in Saudi boardrooms has been e-invoicing. Are we on the Fatoora platform? Which wave are we in? Has the ERP been configured or do we go with a third-party e-invoicing solution? Will we make the deadline?

Those were the right questions for the period we have just left. They are not necessarily the right questions for the period we are entering.

Manish Bansal

On 29 June 2026, the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (“ZATCA”), acting on a decision of the Minister of Finance, extended the Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties initiative for a further six months, running from 1 July to 31 December 2026. It covers excise tax, value added tax, real estate transaction tax, withholding tax and corporate income tax. That much has been widely reported.

Less widely noticed is a condition set out in the accompanying guideline. If the Authority extends the initiative again past December, that further extension will not reach returns that fell due after 30 June 2026.

The Authority has not simply granted more time. It has informed the market, in advance, where the relief eventually stops. Whatever is announced in December, the clean-up window for historical positions is being drawn shut. For a tax administration, that is about as clear a statement as one can give.

What the regulator already sees

The reason this matters now, rather than in some indeterminate future, is that the Authority’s information position has changed fundamentally.

Wave 24 of the e-invoicing Integration Phase closed on 30 June 2026. Announced in September 2025, it captured every taxpayer whose VAT-subject revenues exceeded SAR 375,000 in 2022, 2023 or 2024. That figure is not arbitrary: it is the mandatory VAT registration threshold. In effect, the wave brought the entire registered population into scope.

And the direction has not stopped there. On 24 July 2026 – ZATCA published the criteria for Wave 25, halving the threshold to SAR 187,500 of VAT-subject revenue in 2022, 2023, 2024 or 2025, with integration required by 1 February 2027.

Under the Integration Phase, standard business-to-business invoices are cleared by ZATCA before they reach the buyer, and simplified business-to-consumer invoices are reported within twenty-four hours. Invoices must be issued in a prescribed structured format, carrying a cryptographic stamp and a unique identifier.

The Authority is therefore no longer reliant on what appears in a filed return. It holds the underlying transactional record, in structured form, close to real time, across the whole economy.

This is the shift most finance functions have not yet absorbed. For years, the Saudi assessment process began with an information request. In an environment of structured, near-live data, it begins instead with an anomaly the system has already identified. The taxpayer’s first substantive contact with the process is not a request for documents. It is a proposition to be answered.

Key exposure areas to be mindful of

In our experience, the following key areas could be more visible and exposed to assessment risk in the Kingdom once transactional data can be cross matched against declarations.

The first is permanent establishment risk arising from project delivery. Groups routinely deploy technical staff, secondees and subcontracted specialists into Saudi projects while treating the arrangement as an offshore supply.  Given that most KSA government portals are inter-linked, careful monitoring of in-Kingdom presence is critical, in particular, employees of non-resident companies undertaking fly-in/fly-out assignments in the Kingdom.  It is worth noting that the current tax law has no de minimis threshold for the creation of a permanent establishment.  Accordingly, even a single day of presence in the Kingdom could potentially give rise to a permanent establishment, although in practice, the ZATCA may apply a more facts-based approach when assessing whether a permanent establishment exists.

Second is related-party pricing, and here a change that took effect two years ago is still under-appreciated. Following amendments to the Transfer Pricing By-Laws, the transfer pricing provisions apply to zakat payers as well as taxpayers for financial years beginning on or after 1 January 2024, and Advance Pricing Agreements became available to both. For a Saudi family group with decades of intercompany arrangements built for operational convenience rather than for documentation, this is a material change in obligation, and one that many such groups have not yet worked through.

Lastly, needless to state that VAT audits are likely to get much more sophisticated with real time data and the data analytics and AI tools available.

What the amnesty covers, and what it does not

Many companies are counting on this window. It is worth being precise about what it covers.

The initiative covers late registration, late payment and late filing fines, penalties on the amendment or correction of a VAT return, and other financial fines imposed under Article 45 of the VAT Law, including field detection and e-invoicing violations. To benefit, a taxpayer must register where registration is required, submit the outstanding returns, and either pay the amounts due or obtain ZATCA’s approval for an instalment plan.

Two limits deserve emphasis. The initiative does not extend to penalties relating to tax evasion violations. And it operates on fines for returns falling due up to 30 June 2026.

There is also a point that no guideline states because it does not need to. The initiative waives penalties. It does not validate a technical position. A voluntary disclosure that corrects an arithmetic omission is a straightforward matter. A voluntary disclosure that reveals a contestable tax treatment is a different exercise entirely, because it puts a position on the record that will be read. The analysis must come before the filing, not after it.

Fewer than four months

For most groups, what remains to be done before 31 December is a short list. It is also, notably, not a systems exercise. The e-invoicing platforms are already built and connected. The work now is reviewing the positions those systems have been reporting all along.

Reconcile first. Take VAT/ Tax/ Zakat returns, customs declarations, withholding tax filings and audited financial statements for the open years and reconcile them against one another before ZATCA’s systems do it. Where the numbers do not tie, understand why, and document the reason contemporaneously rather than reconstructing it under assessment.

Then sort. Separate the genuine errors, which the current window is designed to resolve, from the judgement positions, which need to be assessed on their merits and defended with evidence that pre-dates the query.

Finally, treat documentation as a deliverable with a deadline. Substantiation assembled after an assessment notice arrives carries markedly less weight than substantiation prepared when the transaction occurred.

A regulator that publishes wave criteria six months ahead, that notifies taxpayers directly, that issues guidance with worked examples, and that tells the market in advance where relief will end, is behaving like the administration of a mature investment destination. That predictability is an asset for serious businesses, and it is what long-term capital looks for.

But predictability runs in both directions. The Kingdom has been clear about what it expects and when. The businesses that will move through the coming assessment cycle with least disruption are those that use the next few months to answer the questions before they are asked.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for general information only and does not constitute tax, legal, accounting or other professional advice. It reflects the tax rules in force as of the publication date, and the described regulatory landscape continues to develop. Readers should obtain professional advice appropriate to their own facts and circumstances before acting on any matter discussed.

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