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IMPACT OF BITCOIN HALVING CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKETS

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By Mohamed Hashad, Chief Market Strategist, Noor Capital

Since last halving, i.e. halving Bitcoin mining rewards, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency has been showing a great deal of strength and momentum due to the upbeat effect of this technological process that is repeated approximately every four years. The largest cryptocurrency, in terms of transaction volume, was halved on April 14, which increased excitement in the cryptocurrency space. But, investors should learn more about this procedure, how it takes place, and the extent to which it may affect market movements. Since its halving, Bitcoin has been moving in a trading range that highlights the upward momentum that may be on its way, which pushes current prospects toward driving the largest cryptocurrency, in terms of transaction volume, in the crypto assets market towards a record 70,000 level again soon.

Bitcoin recorded a decline on Wednesday to $64,259, which represents the lower limit of the trading range in the period from the halving until the end of Wednesday. The upper limit of this range was $65,749, while the lowest level for the most important cryptocurrency in the world reached $61,274, compared to the highest levels at $66,855, indicating levels close to the records it had previously achieved.

WHAT IS BITCOIN HALVING?

Bitcoin halving is an event labeling the mechanism programmed into a cryptocurrency protocol that will reduce cryptocurrency mining rewards by 50%. These rewards are essentially new Bitcoins added to the blockchain networks operating cryptocurrency trading platforms. This means that the income earned by miners working in this sector will be halved, while the units expected to be added to blockchain networks will also be halved.

WHEN DOES BITCOIN HALVING HAPPEN?

Bitcoin halving is not related to any specific date, but rather follows a mechanism programmed into the blockchain network protocol, as the protocol is modified after every 210,000 blocks are added to the networks, which happens approximately every four years.

EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF BITCOIN HALVING

Bitcoin halving could have a major impact on the cryptocurrency market; including the rise in the price of the most important cryptocurrency in the world, and it may also lead to a state of uncertainty dominating crypto assets with potential fluctuations that may lead to a sharp fluctuation in the price movement.

IMPACT ON BITCOIN MINERS

Cryptocurrency mining activity also turns into a less profitable activity after the reward halving, which may prompt some miners to stop working.

EXPECTED EFFECTS ON THE MARKET

Bitcoin halving is expected to have short-term effects, including a potential increase in the value of the Bitcoin price, as halving is associated with a reduction in the number of new Bitcoin units put on the market. As the supply of Bitcoin decreases, prices rise. The markets are also witnessing sharp fluctuations due to the uncertainty that dominating the crypto space. Bitcoin mining rewards are declining, which reduces the profits of workers in the sector and may distract them from this sort of work. In the long term, halving Bitcoin helps maintain its value in the markets due to its limited supply. Halving also reduces inflation in the world of digital assets. Investors’ confidence in this type of asset is strengthened after halving, due to what this procedure reveals about the technological system upon which the operation of cryptocurrency networks depends and the impression that it involves a great deal of care and concern for the value of these assets.

WHAT SHOULD YOU DO BEFORE HALVING BITCOIN?

Traders in digital asset markets should constantly research the date of the Bitcoin halving and what implications this could have on the price movement. Investors’ risk tolerance should also be taken into account. It is also necessary to develop an investment strategy that matches your financial goals. There are some things we should be aware of about this procedure; Most notably, Bitcoin halving events occur every four years. The blockchain protocol automatically modifies every 210,000 blocks, and the next halving is expected to be in 2028.

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Financial Reports

ESET Threat Report: Infostealers using AI & banking malware creating deepfake videos to steal money 

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ESET has released its latest Threat Report, which summarizes threat landscape trends seen in ESET telemetry and from the perspective of both ESET threat detection and research experts, from December 2023 through May 2024. These past six months painted a dynamic landscape of Android financial threats, malware going after victims’ mobile banking funds – be they in the form of “traditional” banking malware or, more recently, cryptostealers. Infostealing malware can now be found impersonating generative AI tools, and new mobile malware GoldPickaxe is capable of stealing facial recognition data to create deepfake videos used by the malware’s operators to authenticate fraudulent financial transactions. Video games and cheating tools used in online multiplayer games were recently found to contain infostealer malware such as the RedLine Stealer, which saw several detection spikes in H1 2024 in ESET telemetry.

“GoldPickaxe has both Android and iOS versions and has been targeting victims in Southeast Asia through localized malicious apps. As ESET researchers investigated this malware family, they discovered that an older Android sibling of GoldPickaxe, called GoldDiggerPlus, has also tunneled its way to Latin America and South Africa by actively targeting victims in these regions,” explains Jiří Kropáč, Director of ESET Threat Detection.

In recent months Infostealing malware also began to utilize the impersonation of generative AI tools. In H1 2024, Rilide Stealer was spotted misusing the names of generative AI assistants, such as OpenAI’s Sora and Google’s Gemini, to entice potential victims. In another malicious campaign, the Vidar infostealer was lurking behind a supposed Windows desktop app for AI image generator Midjourney – even though Midjourney’s AI model is only accessible via Discord. Since 2023, ESET Research has increasingly seen cybercriminals abusing the AI theme – a trend that is expected to continue.

Gaming enthusiasts who ventured out of the official gaming ecosystem were attacked by infostealers, as some cracked video games and cheating tools used in online multiplayer games were recently found to contain infostealer malware such as Lumma Stealer and RedLine Stealer. RedLine Stealer saw several detection spikes in H1 2024 in ESET telemetry, caused by campaigns in Spain, Japan, and Germany. Its recent waves were so significant that RedLine Stealer detections in H1 2024 surpassed those from H2 2023 by a third.

Balada Injector, a gang notorious for exploiting WordPress plug-in vulnerabilities, continued to run rampant in the first half of 2024, compromising over 20,000 websites and racking up over 400,000 hits in ESET telemetry for the variants used in the gang’s recent campaign. On the ransomware scene, former leading player LockBit was knocked off its pedestal by Operation Chronos, a global disruption conducted by law enforcement in February 2024. Although ESET telemetry recorded two notable LockBit campaigns in H1 2024, these were found to be the result of non-LockBit gangs using the leaked LockBit builder.

The ESET Threat Report features news about recently released deep-dive investigation into one of the most advanced server-side malware campaigns, which is still growing – Ebury group, with their malware and botnet. Over the years, Ebury has been deployed as a backdoor to compromise almost 400,000 Linux, FreeBSD, and OpenBSD servers; more than 100,000 were still compromised as of late 2023.

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Are UAE’s SMEs Confident To Navigate These Challenges And Embrace Opportunities?

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Among the headline findings of the report is that the Small & Medium Enterprise (SME) sector in the United Arab Emirates has successfully moved from a stage of resilience to prosperity after the Covid-19 pandemic, with two in three SMEs expressing a positive view of the future business environment in the country. The report found an overall confidence index score of 61 among UAE SMEs – a number based on RFI Global’s analysis of macroeconomic indicators in the UAE, as well as survey responses from over 1,000 SMEs in the country collected between November-December 2023, all of which contributed to the final Index.

IMPORTANT FINDINGS

The report refers to a strong economic forecast for the UAE, with non-oil GDP expected to grow by over 4% in 2024, and overall GDP projected to grow by 5.70% this year. The RAKBANK SME Confidence Index also highlight steady recovery in factors such as hotel occupancy rates close to pre-pandemic levels, which signals a rebound in the tourism sector that is contributing to the general positive outlook among SMEs about their future revenue prospects and the business landscape in the next 12 months. However, the report also talks about the challenges faced by SMEs, including rising labour, operational and other business costs; the impending introduction of corporate tax; and the cost of capital/credit. To navigate these challenges, SMEs need continued support and attention from financial institutions, in addition to the initiatives we are already seeing from government entities, particularly the UAE.

“Small and Medium Enterprises are the backbone of every healthy economy, and this is especially true in the UAE, where SMEs make up 94% of companies and contribute over 50% to the country’s GDP.” – Raheel Ahmed, Chief Executive Officer, RAKBANK

Drawing from a wealth of macroeconomic data and business sentiment analysis, the report suggests that the issuance of new business licenses in Dubai also reflects a strong business environment. Despite challenges posed by fluctuations in Brent oil futures, the overall macroeconomic indicators suggest fertile ground for SME growth and development. While SMEs are proactively embracing innovation and expansion, showing a strong trend towards launching new products/services and bullishness towards customer demand and pricing of products/services, they also displayed one common thread – the critical role of banking support. The need for tailored financial solutions and advisory services is evident in the SME sector. In fact, one of the report’s standout findings is the high level of satisfaction with banking support among almost all the SME sectors.

“RAKBANK has a rich legacy of supporting SMEs, and the launch of our Index in partnership with RFI Global builds upon this legacy, as the UAE’s first SME-specific confidence survey.” – Dhiraj Kunwar, Managing Director, Business Banking, RAKBANK

The RAKBANK SME Confidence Index also offers an in-depth analysis of business sentiment across various industries, with a special focus on Construction & Manufacturing, Transport, Trading, Public Services, Professional Services, and Consumer & Retail Services, with all the sectors again demonstrating strong confidence

The report refers a strong economic forecast for the UAE, with non-oil GDP expected to grow by over 4% in 2024, and overall GDP projected to grow by 5.70% this year.

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Optimizing In-App Payments Opportunities And Challenges

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Integrator Media had an interview with Remo Giovanni Abbondandolo, General Manager-MENA, Checkout.com

Could you provide a brief overview of the entire ecosystem surrounding in-app payments?

The in-app payments ecosystem encompasses a network of various components, including payment gateways, digital wallets, and payment processors, that work to streamline payment transactions within mobile applications. Within this, the payment gateways act as intermediaries, securely transmitting payment information between the app and the payment processor. The payment processors validate and process transactions, ensuring they comply with regulations and security standards, while the digital wallets store users’ payment details for quick and secure payments. Successful integration of these services requires careful planning and implementation to ensure a smooth user experience and adherence to regulatory requirements, ultimately enabling businesses to deliver seamless payment experiences to their customers.

What are some factors driving the growing trust in digital payment ecosystems among consumers?

In the past few years’ ecommerce has grown faster in the MENA region than anywhere else in the world, with an estimated 209 million consumers transitioning to online shopping during the height of the pandemic. And with the pandemic’s lockdowns now behind us, the number of ecommerce shoppers in MENA only continues to grow. Latest estimates from Redseer have forecasted the total MENA ecommerce market size to be worth $100 billion by 2023. This has had a huge impact on how consumers in the region view digital payments, and on their willingness to use them. Furthermore, the increasing trust in digital payment ecosystems can be attributed to several key factors.

Firstly, the ecosystem is becoming significantly more secure due to rapid advancements in security and fraud prevention. Between 2021 and 2023, the fraud rates for online transactions during Ramadan in the region reduced by a whopping two-thirds, based on Checkout. com processing data. This improved security has instilled confidence in consumers, encouraging them to utilize digital payment methods more frequently. Secondly, the convenience offered by digital payments aligns with the heightened activity in app browsing and mobile shopping during this period. In 2023, for instance, Checkout.com saw processing volumes of online transactions during Ramadan swell in the region year-on-year by 69%, furthermore, we saw a significant uptick in funds sent by expatriates to their families and friends, both in anticipation of the Eid holidays and during the holy month, translated in a 17% increase in the UAE, and 28% in Saudi.

Can you elaborate on how the ecosystem is experiencing enhanced security due to rapid advancements in security and fraud prevention?

The digital payment ecosystem is becoming increasingly secure, thanks to advancements like robust encryption methods that protect payment information during transmission and storage, advanced authentication techniques such as biometrics and tokenization, and real-time transaction monitoring systems. Additionally, machine learning and artificial intelligence algorithms are being increasingly utilized to detect and prevent fraudulent activities. These technologies work together to create a multi-layered security approach, significantly reducing the risk of fraud and ensuring the security of digital transactions. Consequently, businesses can provide consumers with a more secure and reliable payment experience, fostering trust and loyalty.

How do in-app payments offer various opportunities for monetization to businesses operating through mobile applications?

In-app payment processing enables merchants to accept payments for goods and services directly within a mobile app, streamlining the checkout process for users to enter their payment details without leaving the app. This opens all sorts of monetization possibilities for app-based businesses, from setting up subscription payments to unlocking exclusive content. Enhancing in-app payment processing presents an untapped opportunity for merchants in the region to gain significant advantage, with benefits that encompass higher conversion rates, increased revenue, enhanced customer retention, and quicker settlement times. Simplifying the checkout process within the app reduces the likelihood of cart abandonment, leading to a smoother customer journey and ultimately boosting conversions. This not only drives revenue growth but also encourages customers to spend more time within the app, thereby improving retention rates. Additionally, offering direct account[1]to-account payment methods through in-app payments can significantly reduce settlement times compared to traditional card payments.

What are some potential drawbacks that merchants should consider when considering the implementation of in-app payments?

When considering the implementation of in-app payments, merchants should be mindful of two key drawbacks. Firstly, high commission fees can significantly impact profitability, particularly for businesses earning over $1 million in annual net app revenue on both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store, where fees can reach 30% of revenue. However, for businesses making less than $1 million, or in the case of a subscription[1]based app that’s been in service for over 12 months, the corresponding fee is 15% of the revenue, which will apply to most app developers. Secondly, the lack of flexibility in direct integration with Payment Service Providers (PSPs) may limit merchants’ ability to offer alternative payment methods beyond Apple Pay or Google Pay. Despite these challenges, the benefits of in-app payments, especially during busy seasons like Ramadan, often outweigh these drawbacks. Merchants should strive to implement in-app payment processing in a way that optimizes user experience, minimizes commission impact, and complies with app store guidelines.

Do you believe payment service companies are reshaping the landscape of financial services in the region?

Yes, I believe they are indeed reshaping the landscape of financial services in the region. The innovative approaches and technology-driven solutions being offered are revolutionizing how businesses and individuals manage transactions. With the rise of mobile payments, digital wallets, and contactless payments, payment service companies are making transactions more convenient, secure, and efficient. Looking ahead, as technology continues to advance, we can expect to see even more seamless and integrated payment solutions. This includes increased personalization, improved security measures, and further integration with emerging technologies like blockchain and AI. These developments are expected to offer new opportunities for growth and innovation, while expanding the range of services offered. As consumers increasingly embrace digital payment options, payment service companies that can adapt and evolve to meet changing needs are likely to thrive in the growing financial services landscape.

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