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Cyber economics and the risk to critical infrastructure

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By Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Senior Fellow for Geoeconomics, Council on Foreign Relations

Heidi Crebo Rediker Senior Fellow for Geoeconomics Council on Foreign Relations
Heidi Crebo Rediker Senior Fellow for Geoeconomics Council on Foreign Relations
(She is also a speaker at the Global Cybersecurity Forum Annual Meeting 2025.)

In debates on economic security, cyber economics is too often overlooked. Many still frame cyber threats as company-level problems, where firms worry about ransomware, retailers fear stolen data, and banks focus on hacked payment systems. However, the more consequential danger is collective: cyberattacks on critical infrastructure with the power to unleash cascading disruptions across entire economies. This systemic risk remains under-appreciated, even as attacks grow in scope, sophistication, and geopolitical consequence.

From corporate risk to macroeconomic shock

The greatest danger lies not in a single server, but in the complex systems that underpin modern commerce. Electricity grids, water utilities, transportation networks, ports, airports, and undersea cables carry the weight of global connectivity. While automation and software increase efficiency, they also multiply vulnerabilities.

A prolonged disruption to any one of these systems can paralyze thousands of businesses. Multiple disruptions at once could be catastrophic. The 2021 winter storm in Texas, though caused by weather rather than malware, is a sobering example. The blackout cost up to $130 billion and crippled supply chains, health services, and agriculture. Imagine a hostile actor triggering similar failures via cyberattack, deliberately timed for maximum damage. The result would not only devastate individual entities but also generate a macroeconomic shock—akin to a natural disaster colliding with a financial crisis.

The growing threat landscape

State-backed hackers and criminal groups are already probing these vulnerabilities. The Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack in 2021 exposed how fragile logistics networks can be, while the more recent Volt Typhoon campaign embedded malware inside U.S. critical infrastructure. Unlike espionage, such intrusions appear designed to disrupt the civilian economy at scale, undermining both national resilience and military readiness.

The threat is also global. Attacks on undersea cables—vital arteries of the digital economy—are no longer hypothetical. With artificial intelligence accelerating offensive capabilities, adversaries can now identify weaknesses faster and automate attacks at scale. As a result, the risk curve is steepening, placing both advanced and developing economies in danger.

The field of cyber economics

Traditional economics treats cyber risk as a minor externality to be covered by insurance. In contrast, cyber economics reframes these risks as systemic. The more integrated and digitized an economy becomes, the more vulnerable it is to disruption. Elevating cyber threats from technical concerns to macroeconomic risks sharpens the case for sustained investment in resilience.

Without realistic, economy-wide accounting of costs, both governments and markets will continue to underinvest in defense and the skilled workforce required. Initiatives such as the Global Cybersecurity Forum–World Economic Forum Center for Cyber Economics, particularly when joined by institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and OECD, represent important first steps.

Who polices, who pays?

The governance dilemma complicates the picture. In the United States, most critical infrastructure is privately owned, meaning investment decisions often follow commercial incentives rather than national resilience. Large utilities may field advanced defenses, while smaller authorities lack the means to keep pace. Even the best-prepared firms cannot realistically deter state-backed attackers without government coordination and international collaboration.

Meanwhile, state-led economies often mandate cybersecurity standards and assume direct responsibility for protecting infrastructure. Liberal democracies, however, struggle to enforce baselines or require immediate reporting. Legal restrictions and fragmented oversight create uneven defenses, leaving the broader economy exposed to “weakest link” failures. The unresolved question of who ultimately pays—federal taxpayers, private firms, or local governments—further delays progress.

The allied dimension

Because cyber threats transcend borders, national strategies alone are insufficient. Attacks on shared assets such as undersea cables, power grids, or data networks ripple across continents. Therefore, allies must elevate cyber resilience as a shared economic security priority. Intelligence sharing, collaborative monitoring, and joint investment in defensive infrastructure can help close gaps that no single nation can address on its own.

A call to action

What is needed now is a paradigm shift. Policymakers, investors, and regulators must recognize that cyber threats to critical infrastructure represent potential macroeconomic shocks, not isolated corporate challenges. The rise of cyber economics highlights that in an interconnected world, cyber defense is economic defense. Ignoring this reality risks overlooking one of the defining macroeconomic threats of our time.

Read our previous post, H-1B visa fee hike rattles tech and global markets

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BOLT EXPANDS INTO THE UAE CAPITAL

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Dubai Taxi Company PJSC (“DTC”), the leading provider of mobility services in Dubai, and its strategic partner Bolt today announced the entry of Bolt’s ride-hailing services in Abu Dhabi, marking a significant step in the partnership’s expansion across the UAE.

The expansion builds on strong e-hailing momentum across the DTC–Bolt strategic partnership. In 2025, DTC reported a 24% year-on-year increase in e-hailing activity across its taxi and limousine segments, supported by continued fleet expansion and growing customer adoption of digital booking channels.

Bolt will initially launch limousine services where customers in Abu Dhabi will be able to access ride-hailing services backed by a huge network of fleet owners, drivers, and vehicles. This will be followed by taxi services in weeks to follow.

Vasilis Hadjiaslanis, General Manager of Bolt UAE, said: “Abu Dhabi is a natural next step for Bolt in the UAE. We have seen exceptional demand for reliable, app-based mobility, and this milestone gives residents and visitors in the capital access to a service that is fast, convenient, and built around their needs. We are proud to be on this journey alongside our partners at DTC, and we look forward to continuing to grow our presence across the UAE.”

That momentum carried into Q1 2026, with e-hailing activity rising a further 9% year-on-year, reflecting the continued resilience of app-based mobility and the long-term growth potential of digital transport services in the UAE.

The expansion also relies on the partnership’s growth in Dubai, where Q1 2026 saw the integration of 1,823 National Taxi vehicles into the Bolt platform. Broadening Bolt’s UAE footprint and strengthens its role in supporting the country’s evolving ecosystem, shaping how residents, visitors, and businesses move across cities.

Driven by this high demand, Bolt expansion into Abu Dhabi reinforces DTC’s commitment to delivering more accessible mobility solutions for residents, visitors, and businesses nationwide, and support the UAE’s wider shift toward smart mobility.

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London Business School Hosts MENA Leaders to Discuss AI, Investment, and the Digital Economy

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London Business School (LBS) hosted its 23rd Annual MENA Conference at its London campus, bringing together policymakers, investors, entrepreneurs, academics, and industry leaders to discuss the forces reshaping the Middle East and North Africa’s economic future.

Over the years, the conference has evolved into one of the region’s most recognised platforms for discussions around innovation, entrepreneurship, investment, and economic transformation. This year’s edition focused heavily on the intersection of technology, capital, sustainability, and policy, reflecting the region’s growing role within the global digital economy.

“This year’s MENA Conference highlights how the region is positioning itself at the intersection of capital, innovation, and global economic transformation,” said Florin Vasvari, Executive Dean of Executive Education, Middle East, at London Business School.

The agenda explored themes including global capital flows, fintech, climate resilience, artificial intelligence, and the financing landscape surrounding the region’s technology ecosystem. Discussions also examined how regional markets are evolving to support stronger startup ecosystems, deeper capital markets, and long-term economic competitiveness.

Artificial intelligence emerged as one of the defining themes of the conference, with speakers discussing how regional organisations can build sustainable AI capabilities through investments in infrastructure, talent, data, and capital. Conversations also explored how fintech is reshaping financial infrastructure and improving access to digital financial services across the region.

Throughout the event, senior executives, policymakers, founders, and investors shared perspectives on the MENA region’s evolving role within global markets, as governments and businesses increasingly position technology and innovation at the centre of long-term economic diversification strategies.

The conference also highlighted London Business School’s growing regional engagement, following the opening of its executive office in Riyadh alongside its longstanding Dubai campus, strengthening its support for leadership development and executive education across the GCC.

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HOLCIM LAUNCHES UAE’S LOWEST-CARBON CEMENT, CRAFTED FROM LOCALLY SOURCED MATERIALS

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Holcim, the leading partner for sustainable construction, has launched its latest ECOPlanet low-carbon cement in the UAE, produced from locally sourced materials and designed to support the country’s drive toward stronger, more self-reliant industrial growth.

The launch reflects the UAE’s continued focus on building a more resilient manufacturing base and minimizing dependence on imported construction inputs. By using materials sourced within the country and produced locally, ECOPlanet helps strengthen in-country value while supporting the construction sector’s transition to lower-carbon building practices.

Holcim’s new product achieves a 30% reduction in carbon footprint compared to traditional cement and offers developers, contractors, architects and engineers a locally made solution that aligns with both sustainability targets and national industrial priorities. ECOPlanet is engineered to deliver reduced carbon emissions without compromising performance, offering the same strength, durability, and consistency required for large-scale infrastructure and commercial developments. Its formulation enables ready-mix producers and contractors to integrate low-carbon solutions into existing construction workflows with ease.

In the UAE, ready-mix concrete producer Conmix is already using ECOPlanet in an active project, demonstrating the material’s real-world applicability and readiness for immediate deployment at scale. This marks an important step in translating low-carbon construction materials from production into on-ground execution.

As the UAE continues to lead regional growth across the built environment, ECOPlanet establishes the new benchmark for high-performance, low-carbon construction, delivering the scalable foundations required for projects ranging from critical infrastructure and industrial hubs to the icons of the future.

“ECOPlanet reflects our commitment to delivering real, measurable progress in sustainable construction. It is made in the UAE, from UAE materials, and designed to help reduce emissions while strengthening the country’s industrial ecosystem.” said Ali Said, CEO of Holcim UAE and Oman. Holcim is showcasing ECOPlanet at Make it in the Emirates 2026, highlighting how material innovation and local production are helping shape the future of construction in the UAE. The presence reflects the company’s broader role in supporting industrial development, while early adoption by partners such as Conmix demonstrates growing momentum for low-carbon building solutions across active projects in the country.

ECOPlanet is part of Holcim’s global portfolio of low-carbon building materials and solutions designed to deliver high performance while supporting the transition to more sustainable construction practices, building progress for people and the planet.

                                                                    

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