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INSIDE THE NEW RISK REALITY FACING GCC TRADE AND LOGISTICS

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Exclusive interview with Aurélien Paradis, CEO of AU Group MEA

How Supply Chain Disruptions Are Reshaping Trade Across the GCC?

What we are seeing across the GCC is a reset in how trade moves. Goods are still flowing, but the routes, timelines, costs, and risk assumptions behind them are changing. That is the real shift businesses are now dealing with. The pressure on key shipping corridors has forced companies to rethink the way they move goods across the region. Many are having to re-route shipments, work with a wider mix of logistics partners, and rely more heavily on alternative models such as land bridge solutions or sea-air combinations. At the same time, higher freight costs, with carriers introducing surcharges ranging from USD 1,500 to USD 4,000 per container, rising insurance premiums, and longer transit times, with the rerouted sailings adding around 10- 14 days, are putting additional pressure on already tight supply chains.

For businesses in the GCC, this creates a very different operating environment. Essential imports, raw materials, and industrial inputs may still arrive, but not with the same predictability companies were used to. And once predictability is lost, the impact is felt well beyond logistics. It affects project timelines, inventory planning, customer commitments, and ultimately working capital. Even with the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, it will take time to make-up for the delays. So, the real story is this: trade in the GCC is continuing, but under a new risk and cost structure. Companies that adapt fastest, by building more flexibility into sourcing, transport, and risk planning, will be in a much stronger position than those still relying on old trade assumptions.

Why GCC Companies must Rethink Credit Risk in a Volatile Trade Environment?

At its simplest, trade credit insurance exists to protect a business when a customer cannot pay for goods or services. It is built on a basic commercial truth: a sale is only complete when the cash is collected. In more stable conditions, many companies treat that risk as manageable and assume late payment can be absorbed. The problem today is that volatility is changing the risk much earlier in the trade cycle.

Receivables are often one of the largest assets on the balance sheet, so when they come under strain, the effect is immediate on cashflow and working capital. The stronger businesses will be the ones that reassess buyer quality earlier, stay closer to payment behaviour, and act before stress becomes loss. In this environment, protecting the receivable is just as important as moving the goods.

Why Trade Credit Insurance Is Gaining Importance in the GCC

Because businesses are operating in a market where uncertainty is no longer occasional; it is becoming part of the trading environment itself. In that kind of climate, companies are paying closer attention not just to how much they sell, but to how securely they can sell on credit. The value of trade credit insurance is that it does not only protect against non-payment. It also gives businesses a more informed view of the customers they are trading with and the level of exposure they are carrying. That becomes particularly important when supply chain disruption, rising costs, and liquidity pressure can weaken a buyer’s position quite quickly.

What is changing is the way companies are looking at the tool. It is no longer seen only as a defensive measure used after something goes wrong. More businesses are using it as a way to trade with greater confidence, protect cashflow, and make better credit decisions while conditions remain volatile. It can also strengthen access to financing, because insured receivables are often viewed more positively by lenders. In that sense, trade credit insurance is gaining relevance not only because risk is rising, but because it helps businesses stay commercially active without taking unnecessary exposure. The companies that understand this are treating it less as a safety net and more as part of a stronger growth strategy.

What are the biggest logistical challenges currently affecting GCC businesses?

The biggest issue at the moment is that companies are not facing just one logistical challenge, but the piling up of several at once. Businesses are dealing with route disruption, longer transit times, capacity pressure at alternative ports, customs and documentation delays as cargo is redirected, and higher transport and insurance costs as carriers adjust to a more volatile operating environment. Even when goods can still move, they are not always moving through the most efficient or predictable channels, which makes planning far more difficult for importers, distributors, and project-led businesses. That loss of predictability is often the most disruptive part, because it affects everything from inventory timing to delivery commitments and resource allocation.

What can make things more serious and with a lasting impact is the scale and the duration of the disruption. In practical terms, that means companies must now incorporate higher risk for rerouting, and delays rather than treating them as exceptions in the GCC region. The businesses managing this best are the ones increasing flexibility in routing, diversifying logistics partners, and planning for disruption as a recurring operating condition rather than a temporary shock

Q5. Which sectors are most vulnerable to supply chain disruptions?


Several industries across the GCC are feeling the sharpest impact from current supply chain disruption, particularly those that rely heavily on global shipping routes, imported inputs, or time-sensitive delivery cycles. Food and FMCG remain among the most exposed, especially within the cold chain, where fresh produce, meat, dairy, and other perishables depend on strict timing and uninterrupted movement. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are also under pressure, as delays in raw materials and inbound components can slow production, raise inventory costs, and strain working capital.

Construction and building materials face similar challenges, with many projects across the region dependent on imported supplies, meaning longer transit times can lead to delays, cost overruns, and pressure on already demanding timelines. Energy-linked industries are not immune either, as refinery inputs and critical equipment still move through affected shipping lanes. Automotive, electronics, and retail have also been hit by detours around Africa, which are creating shortages and pushing out delivery schedules for consumer goods.

At the same time, SMEs across all trading sectors remain especially vulnerable, as thinner margins and lower liquidity leave them less able to absorb delayed settlements or sudden disruption. Despite these pressures, the region remains highly resilient, and one clear outcome of the current environment is that businesses are being pushed toward stronger supply diversification, tighter financial discipline, greater use of credit risk tools, wider adoption of trade credit insurance, and more serious investment in supply chain agility.

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UAE finance has embraced AI, the returns now sit in the handoffs

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With Dubai fast-tracking agentic AI and AI use among DIFC financial firms rising sharply, Samir Akel, Regional Vice President, Emerging Markets at Nintex, sets out how orchestration turns agentic AI into results for UAE banks and insurers.

This week, much of the region’s technology community has gathered in Abu Dhabi for AI Everything, and the question on the show floor has moved on. A year ago, banks and insurers asked whether to deploy AI agents; today they want to know how to make those agents deliver results across an entire customer journey.

Samir Akel, Regional Vice President, Emerging Markets, Nintex

Government is setting the pace. On 5 October, the Dubai Future Foundation launched an agentic AI accelerator covering 33 government entities and more than 300 public-facing use cases, building on the federal target to run half of government services and operations on agentic AI within two years. Few countries have put a number and a deadline on agentic AI. The UAE has done both.

Finance is keeping up. The Dubai Financial Services Authority’s survey of 661 DIFC firms found that 52% now use AI, up from 33% a year earlier, while generative AI use rose by 166%; the regulator also noted that, for many firms, adoption is still at an early stage. UAE finance has AI in many places. The value comes when those pieces work together.

Work in financial services is fragmented

Follow a corporate account opening at a typical UAE bank. The application lands in a portal or a relationship manager’s inbox; documents and identity are checked, sanctions screening runs in a separate tool, a risk team reviews the file, a committee signs it off and operations sets up the account in core banking. That’s six steps, six systems and one waiting customer.

AI agents speed up individual steps: an agent can extract a trade licence in seconds or draft a risk summary in minutes. Then the file sits in a queue for a reviewer who has no idea it is ready. The task gets faster, while the journey stays as slow as its slowest handoff.

That gap is the coordination tax, made up of the hours lost chasing approvals, re-keying data and fielding “where is my application?” calls. In banking, insurance and payments, where one journey can cross half a dozen teams, it is often the largest cost nobody actually measures.

Process is the foundation

Institutions that turn AI into outcomes start by understanding how work actually runs, and regulated firms have a head start here because they already document their processes for supervisors. The task is to map those processes as they really operate (workarounds and exceptions included) and give each step to the right worker.

Steps that must run identically every time, such as sanctions checks and payment releases, suit rules-based workflow. Reading documents and reasoning over unusual cases suit AI agents. Judgement belongs to people. With the Central Bank’s AI guidance for the sector placing clear emphasis on human oversight, deciding where people sit in a process is now part of designing it.

Orchestration makes AI operational

Once the process is clear, orchestration connects it. It coordinates people, systems, data and agents across a whole journey, deciding who or what acts next and routing exceptions to the right person before they become delays.

Think of an airport, where more aircraft add capacity only when air traffic control sequences them. AI agents work in the same way.

For a bank or insurer, orchestration brings one view of every application, claim or payment. Core banking and policy platforms keep their role while work flows between them, and each orchestrated journey becomes a template for the next, so the tenth deployment goes live faster than the first.

A 90-day starting point

Finance can borrow the government’s 90-day rhythm. Pick one journey that crosses at least three systems and two departments, such as SME lending or a motor claim, and map it as it runs today. Count the handoffs and measure the time lost between them; that figure is your coordination tax. Then assign each step to a rule, an agent or a person, orchestrate the whole journey and track time to decision. Reuse what works.

The orchestrators will lead

At the accelerator launch, Digital Dubai’s Director General said the future of digital government depends on an integrated ecosystem that brings expertise, data and capabilities together. The same holds inside every bank.

Over the next year, the number of AI agent use cases across UAE banking and government will grow rapidly. The institutions that pull ahead will be those with a platform to orchestrate and govern those agents, taking them from pilot to production at scale, while keeping people in control. In the AI era, operational advantage belongs to the orchestrators.

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Henry Dannell Expands into the Middle East with Launch of DIFC Representative Office

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Henry Dannell, a specialist cross-border credit adviser, has announced its expansion into the Middle East with the opening of a representative office in Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), marking a significant milestone in the firm’s international growth strategy.

The move reflects rising demand for specialist advice among internationally mobile individuals whose financial interests increasingly span multiple jurisdictions, asset classes, and lending structures. As Dubai continues to strengthen its position as a global wealth and investment hub, attracting entrepreneurs, family offices, investors, and high-net-worth individuals from around the world, the complexity of managing wealth across borders has increased significantly. Many of these individuals now live, work, invest, and hold assets internationally, creating borrowing requirements that often extend beyond conventional lending frameworks.

Henry Dannell’s expansion into Dubai is designed to bring the firm’s specialist expertise closer to the region’s growing network of wealth advisers, family offices, tax specialists, legal professionals, and internationally connected clients.

Founded in 2019, Henry Dannell has built a reputation for delivering bespoke credit and lending solutions for clients with highly sophisticated financial circumstances. The firm’s advisers support a broad spectrum of clients, from business owners and entrepreneurs to ultra-high-net-worth individuals, helping them navigate complex borrowing scenarios that frequently involve multiple jurisdictions, unconventional income structures, and international assets. Unlike traditional mortgage providers, Henry Dannell operates as a specialist advisory business focused on structuring tailored credit solutions and working alongside trusted professional advisers to address complex financing requirements.

The establishment of the DIFC representative office represents the first phase of the company’s broader regional growth ambitions and will serve as a hub for relationship-building, market engagement, and collaboration with professional advisory communities across the Middle East.

Kem Kemal, CEO and Co-Founder of Henry Dannell, said: “Over the last decade, we have seen a fundamental shift in how wealth is created, managed, and deployed. Successful individuals are increasingly global in their outlook. They may operate businesses in one country, hold investments in another, and seek opportunities across several markets simultaneously. Yet lending has not always evolved at the same pace.”

He explained that too often, highly accomplished individuals with substantial assets and strong financial positions encounter challenges because their circumstances fall outside conventional frameworks. “Our role is to understand the complete picture and design bespoke solutions that reflect the realities of modern international wealth.”

“Dubai has become one of the most important centers for global capital, entrepreneurship and wealth advisory services,” he added. “Establishing a presence within DIFC allows us to be closer to the professional advisers and internationally connected clients we serve, while strengthening relationships across a region that continues to play an increasingly influential role in global finance.”

With over 165 years of combined industry experience across its advisory team, Henry Dannell has developed specialist expertise across residential, commercial, and specialist lending transactions. Through its Dubai presence, Henry Dannell aims to deepen engagement with the region’s professional advisory ecosystem while contributing to discussions around international wealth, investment, and cross-border financial planning.

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The UAE’s Net Wealth Reaches $3.6 Trillion in 2025 and is Expected to Approach $6 Trillion by 2030, BCG Report Finds

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The UAE’s net wealth grew by 12.7% between 2024 and 2025, rising from $3.2 trillion to $3.6 trillion, according to Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) Global Wealth Report 2026: The Great Reordering. Total Net wealth is forecast to reach $6 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of 10.6%. This represents an increase of more than $2.3 trillion over the next five years. The projected growth points to the UAE’s long-term wealth creation potential. 

Financial wealth, including both investable and non-investable wealth, grew by 12.3% between 2024 and 2025, rising from $1.2 trillion to $1.4 trillion and is set to rise to $2.1 trillion by 2030 at a CAGR of 8.7%. Real assets reached $2.4 trillion in 2025 from $2.2 trillion in 2024, with projected growth to $4.2 trillion by 2030.

The findings show the resilience of the UAE wealth market amid a volatile global environment and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. “The ongoing conflict has introduced short-term volatility across Middle Eastern markets, with investor sentiment shaped by geopolitical uncertainty and oil-price movements,” said Lukasz Rey, Managing Director and Partner at BCG. “However, the region’s wealth development story remains structurally resilient over the five-year projection horizon. While we anticipate slightly lower growth over the next one to two years, a rebound is expected toward the latter part of the decade, supported by sovereign wealth strength, economic diversification agendas, family-business liquidity events, and continued private capital activity. We expect wealth managers to remain cautious in the near term; however, the long-term wealth opportunity in the Middle East remains intact.”

The report identifies a broader reordering underway across the global wealth-management industry, spanning geographic shifts, emerging-market wealth creation, intergenerational succession, and AI-driven operating model transformation.

Shifting Wealth Concentration Across UAE Population Segments

According to the report, the UAE’s financial wealth remains concentrated among high-net-worth individuals, with the composition of wealth expected to evolve by 2030 as more wealth accumulates within the lower high-net-worth segment. There are approximately 500 ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) individuals, those with more than US$100 million in assets, in 2025, and they are expected to increase to around 800 by 2030, while their share of total financial wealth rises marginally from 26.3% to 26.5%. The upper high-net-worth segment (US$20–100 million) is forecasted to grow from approximately 2.7K to 4.2K individuals, with its share of wealth broadly stable at 7.4% in 2025 to 7.6% in 2030.

In contrast, the lower high-net-worth segment (US$1–20 million), which comprises approximately 200K individuals, is expected to increase its share of financial wealth from 29.3% in 2025 to 31.5% in 2030. The affluent segment (US$0.25–1 million) is expected to expand from approximately 500K to 600K individuals in 2030, while its share of wealth declines from 15.5% to 14.6% as wealth disperses across a larger base. The mass segment (below US$0.25 million) remains the largest by population, growing from roughly 8.6M to 9M individuals, but its share of financial wealth decreases from 21.5% to 19.8%.

The key UAE findings of BCG’s proprietary analysis are:

  • Financial wealth reaches $1.4 trillion in 2025, with strong projected growth to $2.1 trillion by 2030 (CAGR: 8.7%)
  • Real assets rose to $2.4 trillion in 2025 and are expected to hit $4.2 trillion by 2030 (CAGR: 11.5%)
  • Liabilities climbed to $220 billion in 2025 from $210 billion in 2024, with projections indicating $340 billion by 2030 (CAGR: 8.9%)
  • Cross-border financial wealth belonging to UAE residents and booked outside the UAE surged by 9.4% between 2024 and 2025 in the UAE, reaching $468.4 billion. It is forecasted to grow to $678.2 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 7.7%.
  • Separately, the UAE continues to strengthen its position as a global wealth booking center, with cross-border wealth belonging to international clients and booked in the country reaching $721 billion in 2025, up 11.1% year-on-year.
  • Currency & Deposits, valued at $471.8 billion in 2025, is projected to grow to $778.9 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 10.5%
  • Bonds are expected to reach $27.8 billion by 2030 from $15.9 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 11.8%
  • Equities, valued at $419.4 billion in 2025, are expected to reach $591.9 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 7.1%
  • Life Insurance & Pensions are valued at $26.6 billion in 2025 and projected to grow to $48.4 billion by 2030 (CAGR: 12.7%)

AI Is Reshaping the Economics of Wealth Management 

BCG’s report finds that AI is beginning to reshape wealth-management economics and operating models. AI-powered tools are already drafting financial plans, automating compliance documentation, generating portfolio rationales, and predicting client churn. According to BCG analysis, AI-first wealth managers could unlock 25%–30% capacity gains across key workflows while increasing revenue per advisor by 15%–20%. The report argues that the industry is approaching a structural divide between firms redesigning workflows around AI agents and those layering AI tools onto legacy processes. 

“The UAE’s wealth pool is set to grow by more than $2 trillion over the next five years, and the constraint on capturing that growth is advisor capacity rather than client demand,” said Mohammad Khan, Managing Director and Partner at BCG. “Firms that are redesigning their workflows around AI agents are creating the headroom to serve a larger client base without diluting the quality of advice. Those layering AI onto legacy processes are paying for the technology without changing their economics, and that gap widens the longer it is left.”

Wealth managers face a choice between adapting incrementally and committing to an AI-first future, with the report identifying the latter as the more sustainable approach. Key priorities include:

  • Map value chain exposure: Identify rules-based, templatized processes most vulnerable to automation. Distinguish truly bespoke, relationship-dependent work from structured, repeatable tasks to guide investment decisions.
  • Attack high-cost workflows: Scale AI now in financial planning, portfolio management, and compliance, automated drafting, AI-generated rationales, knowledge assistants.
  • Rebuild the advisor experience around AI: Integrate next-best-action prompts, retention alerts, automated documentation, and personalized outreach into a unified system.
  • Encode institutional knowledge into agents: Pair top practitioners with engineers to build and refine AI agents. Embed advisor judgment into today’s agents, without centralized ownership and outcome-based evaluation, differentiation erodes.
  • Prepare the tech stack for agents. Introduce a decoupled data layer separating operational systems from data consumption, delivering real-time, API-accessible data while maintaining deterministic control through transaction systems and rules engines.
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